【作者】 万多；

【导师】 王键；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 概率论和数理统计， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 将随机的方法应用到人力资源中是一种新的思路,是对人力资源评估方法的一种创新,它考虑了传统人力资源评估模型中未充分考虑的因素,如灵活性。这种方法可以更加准确用来描述人力系统。王键等人提出了人力系统的基本要素:系统人数、任职期限、能量、结构等,而系统人数和任职期限是研究人力系统的最核心的要素,是研究一个人力系统稳定性和合理性的关键所在。影响人力系统主要因素有:人口和劳动队伍变化、人员年龄的增长、经济发展状况、技术变化、正常的人事变动、法律和法规的约束、系统发展阶段的影响、系统内个体对工作岗位态度的变化等。因为影响人力系统的因素有很多,一般模型难以把各种因素都考虑进去,实际上也没有必要把各种因素都考虑进去。把系统人数和人员系统内任职期限的波动过程看作是一个随机过程,再将各种因素对系统人数的影响看作是随机扰动,便产生了系统人数的随机模型。为了更有针对性本文把人力系统分为两类:定容和非定容。再把定容人力系统分割成若干子系统,而子系统又由若干同类成员构成。要保证人力系统正常运行,必须对人力系统的人员流失进行及时的补充,否则人力系统处于非正常状态。系统内人员的流进流出又是一个随机过程,根据分析可把系统内人员的任职期限看作服从指数分布。要保证人力系统正常运行,必须能判断一段时间内流出的人员数量,以此确定出人员补给方案。根据分析可把系统内人员的任职期限看作服从指数分布,要保障人力系统的正常运行必须能判断一段时间内流出系统的人员数量和系统人数的波动程度,来确定出系统人员需求的随机模型。在非定容人力系统中,同样可把人力系统分割成若干子系统,而子系统又由若干同类成员构成,建立人力系统容量随机模型,并利用随机微分方程和偏微分方程的关系,对人力系统容量不确定性进行估计,得到关于人力系统不确定性指标的动态轨线,从而对人力系统受各种因素的变化有整体上的把握。本文的最后一部分目的是在国内外人力资源价值评估的理论研究基础上,尝试着对人力资源价值评估方法进行分析,以此充实我国人力资源价值评估的理论,完善我国人力资源价值的评估方法,并为人力资源价值评估实践提供理论指导和依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Applying random method to human resources is a new thinking and is an innovative approach of human resources assessment, which considers the factors that are not considered sufficiently in traditional human resource assessment model ,such as flexibility.This method is more accurate for describing human system.Wang Jian, make the basic elements of human systems: system size, term of office, energy, structure and so on, Among of which system size and term of office is the key of studying the human system and its stability and rationality.The major factors impacting on human system are: population and workforce changes, the age of growth, economic development, technological development, the normal personnel changes, legal and regulatory constraints, the impact of the system development stage,the attitude changes of individuals in the system.Because there are many factors impactinhg on the Human system, most general models are difficult to take various factors into account. In fact it is not necessary to consider all the factors. Considering the fluctuation process of the system size and the term of office as a random process, taking various factors affecting the system as the number of random disturbances, than the random model of system size is put forwanrd.For more pertinency ,we divide the system into two types: human capacity and non- human capacity . Human capacity can be divided into several sub-system system, and subsystems are composed of some similar members.In order to ensure human system operating, the reduce people in the system must be recruited timely , or the human system is unnormal.The flowing and outflowing number of The system is a random process, based on analysis ,we could consider that the term of office in the system obeies index distribution,To ensure the human systems operating normally ,we must judge the outflowing number of The system and the fluctuation of the number ,then we can find out the stochastic model of the need in the systemIn non-Human capacity system,we can also divided it into several sub-system systems, and subsystems are composed of some similar members.Building human capacity stochastic model,using the differential equations and partial differential equations ,estimating the uncertainty of the system capacity,we get the dynamic rail line of the uncertain indicators of the human system.Then we can grasp all the changes impacted by various factors of the human system. The main purpose of this paper is to try to analyze all kinds of human resource evaluation methods to enrich the human resource evaluation theory of our country, to improve the evaluation methods on human resource and to provide theoretical instruction, based on human resource evaluation practice.更多还原