【作者】 鲍亮亮；

【导师】 王昌衡；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 路面使用性能的评价和预测是路面管理系统的重要环节,对合理地确定养护措施,制定养护方案,安排养护费用起着重要的作用。国外在这两个方面己经进行了大量的研究,目前我国在这方面也作了一定的工作,也取得了很大的成功,但由于我国路面管理系统的研究起步较晚,各种模型和方法都处在探索阶段,还没有形成一套成熟的理论和方法。由于传统的沥青路面使用性能评价和预测模型大都是针对一般公路以制定路面养护方案、安排养护费用、确定路面养护措施、对比不同道路路面状况为目的的。虽然也有些预测和评价模型是针对高等级公路的,但是由于影响路面使用性能因素的复杂性,以及我国高等级公路使用性能状况出现的新特点,使得预测和评价的结果不理想。所以本文以高速公路的路面养护为目的,尝试将组合原理应用到路面使用性能的预测和评价中,以提高使用性能的评价和预测精度。由于高速公路呈现出许多新特点,使得传统的评价指标不适合高速公路路面的评价和预测,本文通过对高速公路路面使用性能状况的仔细分析,确定了针对高速公路养护为目的的路面使用性能评价与预测指标。系统地分析了各指标的影响因素及变化趋势,根据各指标的变化规律提出了三种路面使用性能预测模型:灰色理论模型,指数平滑法模型,趋势预测法模型。由于不同的预测方法包含了不同信息,本文采用组合不同的方法来提高预测精度,为了把更多的路面使用性能影响因素考虑到预测模型中,本文采用定量和定性相结合的层次分析法将一些不能量化的路面性能影响因素通过权重引入到组合模型中来。在评价方面,本文针对高速公路新指标,提出三种回归评价模型,根据不同模型的特点来模拟专家评价的思维过程,最后采用基于灰色关联度理论确定三种模型权重的组合模型来进行路面性能的评价。通过实例分析,本文提出的组合方法和模型在理论上是可行的,可为高速公路路面管理者在进行路面养护时提供有力的指导和帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 The pavement performance evaluation and prediction is an important part of the pavement management system. It plays a vital role of deciding maintenance and rehabilitation strategies, formulating maintenance project and arranging the maintenance costs reasonably. There have been many studies about these areas in foreign countries, and recently our country also has got a great success by researching and studying. However, since research about the pavement management system starts a little late in our country, many studying models and methods are being exploring period, so it is rather weak, and doesn’t form a mature theory and method.Most of the traditional asphalt pavement performance evaluation and prediction are about the common highway. It mainly aim at formulating the pavement maintenance project, arranging the maintenance costs, decide the pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and comparing the different pavement status, Although there are some forecasting and evaluating models about the high grade highway, the result of these models are not satisfied because of the complicated factors that influence pavement performance and the new characteristics of the high grade highway’s performance status in our country. The thesis takes expressway maintenance as its aim and tries to use the combination theory in pavement performance evaluation and prediction to improve the precision.Since the new characteristics of the expressway, the traditional evaluation index is not fit for pavement evaluation and prediction. According to the detailed analysis of pavement performance status, the thesis decides the pavement performance evaluation and prediction index which aimed at expressway maintenance. It also analyzes the influencing factors and its changing trend of every index systematically, and poses three pavement performance prediction models, which as follows: gray system theory model, exponential smoothing model and trend forecast model. As different prediction method including different information, the thesis uses different methods to improve the prediction precision. In order to considering much more factors that influence pavement performance into the prediction model, the thesis adopts the analytic hierarchy process of qualitative and quantitative. Through this method, it brings some pavement influencing factors which can not be measured into the combination model by proportion. On evaluation, the thesis raises three regression models that focus on the expressway new index. According to the characteristics of the different models, it simulates expert’s thought during evaluating process, and finally uses the degree of grey incidence to decide the proportion of these three models to evaluate the pavement performance. On the basis of living examples’analysis, it proves that the combination methods and models that the thesis poses are feasible in theoretic. It can also provide expressway manager with direction and help in pavement maintenance.更多还原