【作者】 崔平平；

【导师】 郝生跃；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 企业管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 本文是关于在房地产投资决策中引入熵理论的研究。文中首先简要介绍了现行的房地产投资决策方法,指出现行的房地产投资决策方法存在的问题。其次,本文介绍了熵理论的起源,并且详细的介绍了熵理论的扩展——信息熵、极大熵和熵权原理。细致的对熵理论在房地产投资决策方法中的适用性进行了分析,得出了熵理论完全可以适用于房地产投资决策理论,并且得出熵理论能够解决目前房地产投资决策方法中存在的不足的结论。其次,将熵理论运用于现行的房地产投资决策方法中。在确定影响房地产投资决策各指标的权重时,采用层次分析法计算主管权重,采用熵权理论计算客观权重,将以上两个权重相结合,得到指标的综合权重,最后通过投资方案综合属性度,判定各投资方案的优劣。在分析房地产投资风险时,采用了两种方法。一种是采用极大熵原理,估计风险因素的概率分布。另外一种是采用熵权的方法,计算风险因素的综合属性度,进而确定项目综合风险系数,衡量项目面临风险大小。通过以上分析,解决熵理论在房地产投资决策中的应用,形成一套系统的、基于熵理论的房地产投资决策方法,以期提高投资决策的准确度并丰富现有的房地产投资决策方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper is about leading the entropy theory into real estate investment decision. First, this paper introduces the method of real estate investment decision briefly and points out the problems. Second, this paper introduces the origin of entropy theory and the extension of it, that are information entropy, maximum entropy and entropy weight. Through the analyze the applicability of leading the entropy theory into real estate investment decision, and get the conclusion that using entropy theory can solve the problems of real estate investment decision. Third, when counting the factor weight which influence the investment decision, use the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to count the subjective weight and the entropy theory to count the objective weight. Then get the factor’s synthesized weight from combine the two weights together. Ordered the investment plans by the comprehensive attributes. Use two ways to estimate the risk of real estate investment. One way is use maximum entropy to estimate the probability distribution. The another way is use entropy weight to count the risky factor’s synthesized weight and measure the risky the project maybe faced. As a result of the researches above, forming a system of real estate investment decision based on entropy theory, in order to raise the decision accuracy and enrich the current method of real estate investment decision.更多还原