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气候变化对开都河出山径流量影响分析

The Effects of Climate Change on the Mountain Runoff of Kaidu River

【作者】 李焰

【导师】 赵景峰;

【作者基本信息】 四川师范大学 , 人文地理学, 2008, 硕士

【摘要】 开都河是流入焉耆盆地最大的河流,河流流经和静、焉耆和博湖三县,归宿于博湖,是流域内工农业生产用水、城镇居民生活用水的重要来源。开都河是唯一能常年补给博斯腾湖的河流,湖水水位变化主要受开都河来水量影响。研究开都河的径流量变化对气候响应,对于预测未来的径流变化规律,具有重要的意义。本文通过对开都河出上游巴音布鲁克气象站的气候要素以及大山口出山年径流量的变化分析,阐述了近40年来巴音布鲁克的气温,降水与大山口站径流量的变化趋势和季节分布特征。研究结果表明:巴音布鲁克地区的气温,冬季和全年平均气温均无明显升高,而夏季平均气温升幅较大;对降水量而言,夏季是巴音布鲁克降水的主要季节,占全年的67.9%;20世纪80年代中期降水偏低,之后降水呈逐步增加趋势;开都河的径流量自1987年后呈现逐步增加趋势,与巴音布鲁克的年降水量和年平均气温存在良好的正相关关系。气候的变化直接影响着开都河年径流量的变化。

【Abstract】 Kaidu river is the largest river which flows into Yanqi Basin, the river flows through Hejing、Yanqi and Bohu,and last flows into Bosten Lake. Kaidu river is the important industrial、agricultural production and urban residents living water source in it flow area. Kai River is the only perennial river supplies Bosten Lake, so Bosten Lake water changes are a major impact on water of kaidu. The People who lives in the southern border region their development of economic and life are seriously depends on the support of the Bosten Lake, research on a river of runoff has a vital importance for response of climate change and Projection of future changes of runoff. As the lower reaches of the river have a greater impact on people, so select source runoff of Dashankou Hydrological Station as a study.In this paper, are off to the upper reaches of the river Bayinbuluke elements of the climate and source runoff of Da Shankou runoff in analysis, research to the recent 40 years Bayinbuluke of temperature, precipitation and runoff of the Da Shankou Station changes and in the distribution of season. The results showed that Bayinbuluke neither winter nor annual average temperature has no significantly increased trend, but a higher rate of warming in summer. The 67.9 percent of rainfall in Summer, it is the main season of rainfall in Bayinbuluke. The mid-1980s is a period of at least precipitation ,and then began to gradually increase; since 1987 the runoff of Kaidu river is gradual increase ,it during to the good corresponding relationship existing between the average annual rainfall and average temperature in Bayinbuluke. the Climate changes have a direct impact on the river in a runoff changes.

  • 【分类号】P467;P333.1
  • 【被引频次】5
  • 【下载频次】313
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