【作者】 徐莉贞；

【导师】 丁堃；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 区域经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 交通运输设备制造业在辽宁省占有着非常重要的地位,如何为辽宁省交通运输设备制造业的未来发展提供一个有利的、高效的途径正是摆在我们面前亟待解决的问题,而技术预见则能够提供一个很好的引导工具——在考虑社会、环境等因素的同时,实现区域经济的快速发展。本文尝试将文本挖掘技术引入技术预见领域,与文献计量法、情景分析法等方法相结合使用,结合交通运输设备制造业国内外发展趋势,辽宁交通运输设备制造业科技资源的现状和产品的技术水平,以及辽宁省未来社会发展的目标,筛选出适合辽宁交通运输设备制造业优先发展的备选技术清单。通过问卷调查,对问卷的各项指标进行赋值并统计分析,尝试遴选出适合辽宁省发展的关键技术和共性技术。通过统计的结果发现:大部分的技术课题将会在2012年前实现,关键技术主要集中在船舶制造领域、铁路运输设备制造领域,主要围绕信息化技术,安全、节能、环保技术,智能化技术展开,这与未来社会的远景正好相符合。并且,经研究发现,虽然汽车制造业也是辽宁省重点发展的产业之一,但是跟其他两个领域相比,其发展情况不是很理想,需要加大力度发展辽宁的汽车制造业,虽然研究的结果跟调查问卷的准确性也有一定关系,但是这个研究结果还是需要引起注意。统计结果结合辽宁省交通运输设备制造业总体情况,提出了20项技术课题作为辽宁省运输设备制造业重点发展对象,并在此基础上提出了一些政策建议:发展绿色制造技术,加大资金投入力度,加强人才培养和吸引,更新研发基础、促进产学研的合作,促进形成自主知识产权(专利),提高自主创新能力、提升产品的技术水平,构建交通运输设备制造业的产业集群等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Transport equipment manufacture industry holds a very important position in Liaoning Province; therefore, how to provide a beneficial and efficient approach to promote the future development of transport equipment manufacture in Liaoning is an urgent topic currently. Meanwhile, technology foresight can perform well as a guidance tool by taking societal factors and environmental factors into consideration, thereby being beneficial to the rapid development of regional economic.This paper firstly tries to introduce text mining technology into the field of technology foresight and further combine with literature measurement, scenario analysis considering the present trend, scientific and technological resources’ status and technological level of products, as well as the future goal of Liaoning Province, to generate the list of alternative technologies suitable for actual circumstance of Liaoning. And then select key technologies and common technologies through statistical analysis of survey results.The final results show that most of the technologies listed in the questionnaire will be realized before the year 2012 and key technologies mostly focus on the area of ship and railway transport equipment manufacture and evolve with the development of information technology, security, energy-saving, environmental technology, intelligent technology, in accordance with the perspective of future society. Moreover, evidences indicate that although auto traffic transport equipment manufacture industry is a key industry required to be developed, compared with the other two areas, its situation is not satisfying and still should be largely specialized in despite that the survey results may be a little inaccurate. Finally, based on the aforementioned conclusions, twenty technical issues are presented as the key points Liaoning province transport equipment industry should concentrate on and some corresponding suggestions are put forward, such as developing green manufacturing technologies, increasing capital input, strengthening personnel training, updating R&D base, promoting cooperation, promoting the formation of independent intellectual property rights, enhancing independent innovation ability, upgrading the technological level of products, constructing transport equipment manufacture industry cluster etc.更多还原