【作者】 张开宇；

【导师】 李晓；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,人民币现金在我国周边国家跨境流动逐渐形成相当规模,且人民币跨境流动的动机日趋复杂,从简单的交易需求扩大到了交易、投机、价值储备等多重动机,人民币跨境流动的途径也呈现出多样性的特点。从整体上看,大量的人民币现金跨境流动利大于弊,它在一定程度上缓解了双边交往中结算手段的不足,有利于推动和扩大双边经贸往来。但是,随着跨境流动规模的不断扩大,人民币现金跨境流动对我国金融监管乃至宏观调控带来了巨大的挑战。本文以东北亚边境地区为视角,介绍了人民币在中朝、中俄、中蒙跨境流动的现状和发展趋势,分析了人民币跨境流动的主要途径、规模估算和基本特点,总结了人民币境外流通发展的主要原因,讨论了人民币跨境流动与使用对我国经济的影响,提出了必须高度重视人民币跨境流动的风险因素,切实加强人民币跨境流动管理的对策建议,对积极推动人民币区域化问题进行了有益的探索。更多还原

【Abstract】 Although the Renminbi convertibility under capital accounts is not yet implemented, RMB has been circulating in Chinese neighboring countries for many years, and the quantity is continuously increasing, especially in some countries or areas where there is a tendency that RMB partially substitutes for the local currency .This article illustrates the conditions and the development of the RMB’s cross-border circulation in Northeast Asia; analyses where, how and how much it circulates; and summarizes the main causes leading to such currency flow. The author also discussed the advantages and disadvantages it gave to Chinese economy, and brought forward some advice to strengthen the management on the RMB cross-border flow.There are eight parts in this article. Part 1 shows the distribution of RMB’s circulation in Korea, Russia and Mongolia. In Part 2, the author tells us three main channels of this cross-border circulation: border trade, travel and under the demand of money exchange. The author also estimated the circulation amount of RMB in Part 3: the inflow and outflow of RMB in 2006 was nearly 19.7 billion, and the net outflow was about 1.9 billion. And the characters of the movement are outlined in Part 4; we can see that the micro-settlement of border trade accounts for the largest part of the circulation. In the fifth part of this article the author believes that China’s comprehensive national strength, RMB’s stability and the development of cross-border trade between China and Chinese neighboring countries promote the RMB cross-border flow. In the next two parts, the positive effects and the existent problems of the RMB’s circulation to China are also pointed out, and finally the author provides some suggestions to strengthen the monitoring on RMB’s inflow and outflow.Fresh progress made in this article is the usage of comparative analysis method. The author not only summaries the common things happened in the three countries, but also points out the differences. Under this background, the author also suggests that various policies and measures should be carried out steadily by stages according to the corresponding countries.According to our research, issues aroused from the cross-border circulation of RMB in Northeast Asia are quite representative: lacking the prevention system, the large amount of cash inflow and outflow in short term would reduce the borders’ financial stability, and international speculators will take advantage of it where there is any speculative opportunity. The growing cross-border circulation also increases the difficulties in the money monitoring and management, because of its separation from banking system and the complicated cash flowing channels. For the same reason, Account management combating money laundering and counterfeit notes crime becomes another impossible mission. On the other hand, the current government policy that exports settled in domestic currency (RMB) can’t claim for the export tax rebate undesignedly holds back the RMB’s inflow, and unintendedly helps the illegal foreign exchange transactions. In summery, the frequently inflow and outflow of RMB will eventually affect the Chinese monetary policy’s independence and validity.Therefore, some institutional arrangements are proposed to carry on as soon as possible. Department of foreign exchange management should realize that RMB has been recognized as the key settlement currency in the cross-border trade between Chinese neighboring countries, and policies should be formulated to support it under the foreign exchange management system. On the tax policy, exports settled in RMB should be treated as the same as those settled in the foreign exchange and have the opportunity to claim the tax rebate or subsidies. The article reflects the views that RMB’s flow monitoring system should be designed scientifically to respond to the lack in liquidity in time, and the prefigured frame include such elements as consistent indicators, report uniform system and work criterion. On the state level, the author suggests that co-operation of neighboring countries’ central bank should be strengthened in order to establish inter-bank settlement system in RMB,and such governments’ co-operation should be further expended to another aspects for the development of cross-border trade and the economic co-operation. In the same time, China should make efforts on the RMB’s regionalization progress and promote regional co-operation and economic development.更多还原