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大型系统中安全防护及人因可靠性应用研究

Study on Safety and Human Reliability Analysis in Large-Scale Systems

【作者】 刘骁

【导师】 温正忠;

【作者基本信息】 西安电子科技大学 , 机械设计制造及其自动化, 2008, 硕士

【摘要】 随着各种装备、过程及其系统的日益复杂化、大型化及高度自动化,对人-机-环境系统的安全性、可靠性的要求越来越高。于是人因及其失误在系统中的影响便愈加凸显出来。然而由于人本身具有时变性、非线性和随机性等特点,影响人因错误的因素极其复杂纷繁,涉及学科范围极其广泛,难度较大;加之我国在此领域的系统研究起步较晚,因而在理论和实践上尚有较大差距。基于此,本文在学习借鉴国外相关研究成果的基础上,对人因错误的影响因素作了较为深入的探讨,将其归纳为社会的、心理的、生理的、知识/技能的以及任务(职位)的这五个方面;根据目前国内尚缺乏较为完整的事故统计数据(数据库)的现状以及某些因素难以量化的特点,为便于工程实用对若干因素作了简化,并尝试将模糊综合评价法用于人因危险系数的计算;同时应用层次分析法对系统的安全进行风险评估,对系统中的各个失效因素进行计算分析比较,以确定潜在隐患。本文工作虽然主要是针对工业生产系统中的人因影响所展开的初步探讨;其进一步的深入和完善,对于包括航天、核电站及武器装备等系统的安全性、可靠性设计评估中的人因分析也有促进和借鉴作用。

【Abstract】 Along with various types of equipment, processes and systems become more and more complex、large-scale and highly automated,the demands of the Human- Machines - Environment system’s security and reliability become increasingly higher. So in the system the impact of human and its faults increasingly become prominent. And because of person,self has characteristics such as degeneration, nonlinearity and randoms, influencing human error factors numerous and extremely complex, involving extremely broad scope of disciplines,it is quite difficult; Plus China in this field of system late start, so in theory and in practice there are still large gaps。Based on this, this paper,in the study profits from the overseas related research results in the foundation, has made a more thorough research on the fault factors to the human, induces it into the society, the psychology, the physiology, the knowledge/skill as well as the duty (position) these five aspects。At present ,domestic is still in the situation of lacking complete accident statistics data (database) and some certain factors are difficult to quantify, in order to be advantageous for the project to make the simplification practical to certain factors,and attempt using the fuzzy evaluation method to computate the danger coefficient of human。Simultaneously the application analytic hierarchy process carries on the risk assessment to system’s security, carries on the computation analysis comparison to system’s each expiration factor, and determines the latent hidden danger. The paper works, although mainly aims at the preliminary discussion which because in the industrial production system’s person affects launches; As it further thorough and the imperfectness, it will has profits from the function to person analyzes on system’s securities and reliability design appraisal of astronautics, nuclear power station and weaponry and so on。

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