【作者】 宋元文；

【导师】 屠梅曾；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源既是一种特殊的、不可替换的资源,又是一种可重复利用的自然资源。根据联合国教育科学文化组织最新发表的“世界水资源开发报告”指出,未来20年全球供水量预计将下跌三分之一,而到2050年,全球将有48-60个国家的20-70亿人口受饮用水短缺的影响。水资源将取代能源成为21世纪最紧缺的战略资源。水资源是中国在自然资源领域面临的最大威胁,中国用水量居世界第一位,而人均供水却远远低于世界平均水平。根据国家发改委预计,到2010年中国的用水供求缺口将达320亿立方米,到2030年将激增至500亿立方米。因此,如何合理有效地配置水资源,缓解水资源供需矛盾成为当今社会发展的一个刻不容缓的重大命题。在十一五规划中,中央明确指出,要落实节约资源和保护环境基本国策,建设低投入、高产出,低消耗、少排放,能循环、可持续的国民经济体系和资源节约型、环境友好型社会。资源节约型社会的建设要求强化资源管理,而加强水资源管理,须完善取水许可和水资源有偿使用制度,实行用水总量控制与定额管理相结合的制度,建立国家初始水权分配制度和水权转让制度,健全流域管理与区域管理相结合的水资源管理体制。为了剖析水权优化配置对资源节约型社会建设的积极作用、解决水权优化配置的几个关键问题,本文从水权及水权优化配置理论出发,分别从流域水权配置的模式选择,流域水权初始配置模型、流域水权交易机制等方面,结合太湖流域的实践,对流域水权优化配置问题进行了较为系统的研究,其主要研究成果及结论如下:本文阐明了研究目的和研究意义,对国内外水权优化配置的相关研究进行综述。本文主要研究水权及水权优化配置理论,阐述了水权及产权的概念、水权特征,对水权的界定及水权制度进行了分析,指出了水资全产权具有非完全排他性、可分割性、外部性、配置主体地位的不平等性、稀缺性等五个特性,并认为在我国水权必须基于流域的基础上进行探讨和研究。在此基础上,本文将水权定义为流域水资源的使用权、收益权、处分权和自由转让权。本文主要就水权配置模式的选择进行了探讨。通过政府垄断型、自由市场型和水权交易型三种流域水权配置模式的比较,本文认为采用水权交易型水权配置模式是较优的模式,它克服了政府垄断型配置模式所带来的“政府失灵”以及自由市场型配置模式所带来的“市场失灵”。在讨论水权交易型配置的两种模式——基于优先专用权原则的配置模式和基于比例分享权原则的配置模式,我们发现基于比例共享权原则的配置模式消除了用水户之间的不公平性,尤其是当用水双方的弹性系数相同时,基于比例共享权原则的配置模式能够优化和提升整个社会的福利。本文主要研究了水权初始配置模式,认为合理地界定初始水权,是建立可交易水权制度的前提,也是流域水资源高效开发利用和水资源统一管理的基础。本文通过建立多目标多层次模糊优选模型,从“流域”至“行政区”对水权进行了第一层次的初始配置,解决了流域间各行政区的竞争用水问题;通过建立多目标规划模型,从“行政区”至“用水户”对水权进行第二层次的初始配置,解决了各行政区内产业部门的竞争用水问题,在一定程度上实现了水权根据效益优先原则进行配置。本文通过对太湖流域的实证分析,得出的结论表明,水权初始配置能够提高节水效率,通过水权的优化配置能够引导产业结构的优化配置,从而提高整个流域的经济效益。本文研究了水权准市场交易机制,具体阐述了水权准市场的两种拍卖模型,第一价格拍卖模型和双方叫价拍卖模型,并且在这两种基本模型的基础上,提出水权准市场多因子动态交易模型,考虑了水权转让双方对水权价值的判断,即水权价格弹性系数,并通过模型的推导得出动态交易模型的交易价格和存在条件。本文通过对太湖流域的实证分析,并通过计算机程序语言实现了水权交易均衡价格的模拟测算过程,得到上海地区第一产业富余水权向第二产业转让的水权交易均衡价格。通过以上研究,本文的创新点可归纳为以下三点:1、通过分析比较基于优先占用权原则和基于比例分享权原则的两种水权交易型配置模式,得出水权优化配置应遵循比例分享权原则的结论,以及明晰水权的重要性。2、选择合理的指标体系,通过多目标多层次模糊优选理论和多目标规划理论对水权进行两个层次的初始配置,解决了初始水权配置的难点,并对太湖流域目前的水权配置进行了实证分析。3、在建立多因子水权准市场交易动态模型的基础上,分析了水权交易价格均衡解及其存在条件,并用计算机程序语言实现了上海地区第一产业富余水权向第二产业转让交易的均衡价格模拟测算。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is a special, irreplaceable resource as well as a kind of natural resource which could be repetitively used. According to the“World Water Development Report”issued by United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization recently, the global supply of water in the next 20 years is expected to fall by one third and there will be 20-70 million people from 48-60 countries affected by shortage of drinking water in 2050. Water will definitely become one of the most important strategic resources in 21st century.China’s water resources are facing the biggest threat among all natural resources. China ranks first in the world consumption of water while the water supply per capita is far below the world’s average level. According to the prediction of the State Development and Reform Commission, the gap between water supply and demand will reach 32 billion cubic meters by 2010 and will be increased to 50 billion cubic meters in 2030. Therefore, how to make effective and efficient distribution of water resource to ease contradiction between supply and demand has become a major proposition in social development.In the 11th Five-Year Plan, the central government clearly pointed out that we should comply with the basic national policy of resource conservation and environment protection to build a low-input, high-yield, low-consumption, emission, energic and sustainable economic system and a resource-saving, environment-friendly society. In order to build a resource-saving society, we should strengthen resource management, especially in water resource management to improve water usage permission and paid system, to implement water volume control, to initialize the establishment of water property distribution system and water property trade system, to sound water resource management system.There are a few key issues to analyze the impact of optimal allocation of water property on establishment of resource-saving society. This thesis will focus on the issues under the base of water property and optimal allocation of water property theory and to solve the issues like water property distribution mode, initial water property allocation model, water property trade system. This thesis did some demonstration and data analysis for Taihu Lake Watershed and the main results and conclusions are as follows:Firstly, this thesis clarifies the purpose and significance of the topic and sum up the reviews of optimal distribution of water property and some relevant studies.Secondly, this thesis studies water property theory, explain the definition of water property, characteristics of water property, and analyze the water property system. The findings are that the water property study should be based on watershed in China because of the completely non-exclusive, un-dividend, externality, inequality and scarcity features of water property. Therefore, the water property is defined as the right to use water, get profit from water, dispose of water and trade of water.Thirdly, this thesis mainly discusses the distribution model of water property. Through the analysis of three different models, we consider that the adoption of water trade distribution model will be the more effective one because it overcomes of shortcomings of government failure as well as market failure. In discussing water trade distribution model, we find that the trade distribution model based on the principle of proportional allocation could eliminate the inequality between the users. And more important, this kind of distribution model could upgrade the welfare of the whole society if the water users have the same coefficient of elasticity.Fourthly, this thesis solve the problem of water resource competitiveness on the level of“Valley to City”through multi-level, multi-objective optimization model; solve the problem of water resource competitiveness on the level of“City to Sector”through multi objective programming model. According to the data analysis of Taihu Lake Watershed, the initial water property allocation could improve the efficiency of water-saving, guide the optimization of industrial structure and increase the economic effectiveness of the entire watershed. At last, this thesis studies water property quasi-market trading mechanism by setting out in detail of two types of quasi-market auction model for water property. The one is the first price auction model and another is two sides outcry auction model. Based on these two basic models, this thesis initialize the water property quasi-market dynamic transaction model by considering both parties water property value judgment, that to say the elasticity co efficiency of water price. Based on the data analysis of Taihu Lake Watershed, this thesis use C++ computer programming language to realize the process of dynamic trading and get the equilibrium price of water property trade from primary industry to second industry in Shanghai.Through the research above, the innovative points of this issue could be summarized as follows:1. Through the analysis of two kinds of water property trade distribution model——Based on the principle of priority sharing and proportional sharing, the conclusion is that the optimal distribution of water property should be based on the principle of proportional sharing. Therefore, it’s very important to clarify water property before water property allocation.2. Through choosing a reasonable target system and multi-level, multi-objective optimization model and multi-objective programming model, the thesis initializes the two level water property allocations to solve the problem of property competitiveness.3. Based on the multi-factor water property quasi-market dynamic transaction model, this thesis analyze the equilibrium price water property trade and use C++ computer programming language to realize the process of dynamic trading and get the equilibrium price of water property trade from primary industry to second industry in Shanghai.更多还原