【作者】 张荣雨；

【导师】 黄铭；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 岩土工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 工程安全监测已经在各大工程领域中得到广泛应用,针对监测数据而进行的安全评判工作也得到了越来越多的重视。海塘安全监测体系正随着海塘建设管理工作的开展而逐渐趋于完善,建立在监测数据基础上的安全评判工作已经成为了海塘管理者保障海塘安全运行的重要手段,有助于管理者随时对海塘状态进行分析、判断,并指导运行及维护。为了准确分析海塘运行期的监测资料,更合理地对海塘安全进行评判,本文结合模糊数学综合评判理论对海塘综合评判体系进行了分析;根据监测数据的完整性对安全评判因素进行分类,建立了两种不同方式的海塘安全评判因素集;对海塘模糊综合评判过程中隶属度的计算和权值的确定两部分内容进行了详细地研究和说明。在海塘安全评判中,不同的评判因素具有不同的安全等级意义,因此安全等级的划分方式不同,这也直接决定了计算不同评判因素隶属度的方法不同。本文在海塘安全评判中,对于评判指标潮位和降雨,以它们的明确特征值为基础进行安全等级的划分,对于不同的安全等级采用模糊统计的方式计算隶属度;评判指标渗压的安全定义与其他因素不同,并且不具备明确的特征值,本文利用概率论的知识,结合置信水平来划分它的安全等级,同时选用符合正态分布的隶属函数来计算隶属度。确定不同评判指标权值的方法主要有主观赋权法和客观赋权法两种,本文在评判中使用了主观赋权法中的层次分析法和客观赋权法中的主成分分析法和熵值赋权法。研究过程中对于主成分权法进行了改进,在基本数学原理基础上,将负荷量和贡献率引入到赋权中去,提出了一种新的基于主成分思想的赋权方法;熵值赋权法也是一种常用的赋权方法,它的使用需要结合具体监测数据的特点进行,本文对于评判指标和熵权法的特点都进行了细致地分析,最终将它们结合到了一起,为海塘评判提供了一个新的尝试。上述各评判过程均以浦东海塘运行期监测数据为基础建立实例分析,采用两个不同时段进行对比。分析表明采用的评判模型结构合理,计算方法实用可行,算例结果真实地反映了海塘的安全状况,并具有良好的实时性和较强的敏感性。这种评判方式为未来海塘安全监测资料的分析研究和应用、为保障海塘的安全运行提供了有效工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 Engineering safety monitoring has widespread applications in many engineering field and the safety evaluation work for data monitoring attracts more and more attention. Sea wall safety monitoring system becomes more and more complete due to the execution of sea wall construction management. The safety evaluation work, based on the data of safety monitoring, has become one of the most important ways for sea wall manager to guarantee the normal operation of sea wall. It also helps the sea wall manager to conduct the analysis, judgment, instruction guidance and maintenance of sea wall status.For accurate analysis of data monitoring information during sea wall operation and for more reasonable evaluation of sea wall safety, this paper carries out the analysis for sea wall comprehensive evaluation system by utilizing the fuzzy mathematics synthetic evaluation system. This paper also classifies the safety evaluation factor according to the monitoring data. Further more, this paper develops detailed study and gives illustration on the determination of weight and membership grade in the sea wall fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.In the evaluation of sea wall safety, different evaluating factors have different safety sense, thus, the safety standard classification is different, which directly determines the different methods for the calculation of membership grade of various factors. In the sea wall safety evaluation, this paper classifies the safety level based on the evaluating factors such as sea level and rainfall, and calculate the membership grade of various safety level by fuzzy statistics. The safety definition of the evaluating factor osmosis is different from the other factors, and it does not have any characteristic. This paper classifies the safety level of osmosis by using the probability theory and integrating the confidence level, and at the mean time, this paper calculate the membership grade by using membership functions which match the normal distribution.There are two methods to identify the weight of evaluating factors, subjective weight assignment method and objective weight assignment method. This paper utilizes the analytical hierarchy process of subjective weight assignment method and the principle component analysis and entropy weight assignment of objective weight assignment method. In the study, the principle component method is improved. Based on the original fundamentals, the payload and contribution rate are introduced to the weight assignment and a new weight assignment method based on the principle component idea is proposed. Entropy weight assignment is a frequently used weight assignment method too, and its usage needs the integration of the characteristic of monitoring data. This paper performs detailed analysis on the evaluating factors and the feature of entropy weight method, and finally combines them together which provides a trial for the sea wall evaluation.The above mentioned evaluating processes are all obtained through cases which based on the monitoring data of Pudong sea wall operation period. The analysis indicates that the evaluating model is reasonable and the methods are applicable. The case results can objectively reflect the safety status and has strong forecasting and sensitive features. These evaluating methods provide efficient tools for the data analysis of future sea wall safety monitoring and sea wall safety assurance.更多还原