【作者】 陈红军；

【导师】 徐海平； 张学东；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁科技大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 随着国民经济的迅速发展,钢铁的需求量逐年上升,用于炼钢的冶金焦的需求量也迅速增大,如何根据现有的煤资源来达到预期的焦炭指标,稳定焦炭质量,并使成本最小是焦化行业追求的目标。炼焦配煤是一个复杂的过程,但对于一个具体的焦化厂,在一段稳定生产时期内,炼焦工艺、加热制度等基本不变,焦炉设备状态也基本稳定,这些基本不变因素对焦炭质量的影响也基本相同或变化不大,因此影响焦炭质量的因素便可缩小到配合煤的质量,而配合煤的性质又是由参加配合的单种煤的性质与配比决定的,调整配合煤种和配比,就可控制焦炭质量,优选配合煤种和配比就可降低炼焦用煤成本。本文在国内外配煤理论与方法及焦炭质量预测研究现状的基础上,根据某焦化厂近两年的生产数据,分析单种煤到配合煤的预测,发现配合煤的黏结指数和胶质层最大厚度不具有加和性,加权平均误差很大。对单种煤进行模糊聚类后,对同一类的单种煤进行加权平均,然后再利用历史数据对未来的数据进行预测,预测的结果表明此方法误差比简单的加权平均的预测精度较高,证明该预测方法的可行性。对焦炭质量的预测采用线性的回归分析、稳健回归和非线性的神经网络与支持向量机的方法,在预测分析的同时进行了试验分析。分析结果表明,支持向量机的预测精度比前三种方法高,灰分、硫分、M40、M10、CRI、CSR的平均误差分别为0.0719、0.0364、0.5348、0.1001、0.6440、1.0681。证明配煤和炼焦过程的复杂关系可以用基于统计理论的支持向量机来正确描述,为进一步提高焦炭质量预测的准确性和科学性提供了一种新方法。在以上理论的基础上,引入遗传算法,将遗传算法和支持向量机相结合,为计算单种煤的配比提供了一种新的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of the national economy, the demand of steel is increasing year after year and the metallurgical coke for steel-making is also increasing rapidly. How to achieve desired targets of coke and make the coke’s quality stable and minimize the cost using the existing coal resources is coking industries’ goal.Coking coal is a complex process, but to a specific coking factory, its coking process and heating system will remain basically unchanged in a stable period of production, the state of coke oven equipment is also stable. These essentially unchanged factors have the same influence on the quality of coke or have changed little. Thereby the factors that affect the quality of coke can be reduced to the quality of matching coal, while the property of matching coal is decided by every single coal’s property and ratio. Accordingly, adjusting the matching coal and radio can control the quality of coke and the optimization with matching and ratio can lower the cost.In this paper, according to some factories’ production data in recent two years, after analyzing a single coal to matching coal’s forecast on the basis of theory and method on matching coal at home and abroad, it is discovered that the felting exponent of matching coal and the max thickness of gelatine don’t have weigh and the weighed average error is large. After the fuzzy clustering en the single coal, calculate the weighted average of the single coal of the same type, and then use historical data to predict the future data. The forecasting results showed that this method is better than simple weighted average forecast that the method is feasible. On coke quality forecasts using linear regression analysis, robust regression and non-linear Neural Network and Support Vector Machine method, the predictive analysis of the test is carried out at the same time. The results show that the prediction accuracy of SVM is higher than the previous three methods. The average errors of ash, sulfur, M40, M10, CRI, CSR are 0.0719, 0.0364, 0.5348, 0.1001, 0.6440, 1.0681 respectively. It is proved that the complex relationship of coking and coal blending can be correctly described by the Support Vector Machine based on the statistical theory, which provides a new method for further improving the scientificity and accuracy of the forecasting of coke’s quality. On the basis of the above theory, I introduce the genetic algorithm, and combine the genetic algorithms with support vector machines, which provides a new approach for the calculating the ratio of single coal.更多还原