【作者】 李伟；

【导师】 张秀媛； 李秀敏；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统理论， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 “十五”以来,北京市开始重视交通结构优化研究,以求通过出行方式转移来缓解城市交通拥堵状况。以往十几年来大量资金投入到道路建设,没有从根本上扭转交通供需矛盾日益突出的状况;公共交通方面投资“滞后”,导致公共交通服务水平不高,吸引力小,结构调整难度很大。因此,从交通投资与交通需求的关系出发,探讨投资方向和投资力度对交通结构的影响是有意义的。论文在回顾了北京市交通百年发展过程及借鉴国外大城市交通投资政策的基础上,定性分析了北京市近期交通投资方向。运用协调度理论分析了北京市交通投资系统与交通需求、交通供给和社会经济三个系统的协同关系,定量得到北京市20年来交通投资与交通结构之间的协调程度,据此确定了北京市近期交通投资结构调整方向。最后,基于历史数据,应用多目标优化方法,并通过Matlab软件计算,讨论北京市近期交通投资占GDP及基本建设投资的优化比例。结论表明:北京市交通投资应适当倾向于大容量快速轨道交通,加大地面常规公交及交通需求管理的投资力度,以实现北京市“十一五”时期交通发展规划目标,达到交通投资结构与交通需求的协调可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Beijing has started the research to optimize city traffic structure since the tenth five year plan, in order to solve traffic congestion by changing people’s traffic modes. In the past ten years, a great deal traffic investment was put on road construction, which did not turn the condition that the contradiction between traffic demand and traffic supply is more and more serious. Because of a lag in public traffic investment, there is no better service level of public traffic, and no attraction compared with cars. It is hard to adjust traffic modes. Therefore, it has means to discuss traffic investment direction and scale infection to traffic structure.First, the paper looks back Beijing traffic evolvement in the past a hundred years, and uses traffic policies of foreign big cities for reference to qualitatively analyze Beijing traffic investment direction in the near future. Then, paper applied harmony degree theory to analyses harmony relationships of Beijing traffic investment with traffic supply, traffic demand and social and economic subsystem, and to get the harmony degree between traffic investment and traffic structure quantitatively in the past twenty years. Based on the harmony relationships, we can rectify Beijing traffic investment structure.At last, based on annals data, we applied multi-objective optimize method to discuss the proportions that Beijing traffic investment account for GDP and infrastructure investment in the near future, by Matlab software. We gained the conclusions that Beijing traffic investment should be inclined to track traffic which is big capability and speedy, and Beijing should increase investment on ground routine public traffic and public security traffic management to realize the eleventh five-year traffic aim, and to gain a harmonious and continuable development of traffic investment structure and traffic demand.更多还原