【作者】 宋大鹏；

【导师】 王付明；

【作者基本信息】 解放军信息工程大学 ， 作战指挥学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 现代战争中，紧急疏散是城市人员有效防护手段之一，可以弥补掩蔽防护不足。人员紧急疏散问题是当今安全领域研究的热点。人员紧急疏散指挥不仅是战时的重要任务，也是和平时期的重要工作。深入系统地研究人员紧急疏散指挥，尤其是通过现代仿真技术实现人员紧急疏散行动的科学决策，对提高我军的指挥效能具有重要意义。本文的目的是为现代战争中人员紧急疏散行动指挥提供决策支持。以现代战争指挥理论为基础，分析了人员紧急疏散行动的特点和规律，确定了人员紧急疏散指挥系统的构成要素和基本活动，归纳总结了现代战争中人员紧急疏散行动指挥规律、指导思想和基本原则，提出了人员紧急疏散行动指挥体制，建立了紧急疏散行动指挥机构，探讨了人员紧急疏散行动指挥的一般程序。在此基础上，利用系统动力学仿真理论与技术，采取理论与实践相结合、定性与定量分析相结合的研究方法，通过人员紧急疏散系统的目标分析和结构分析，建立了人员紧急疏散系统动力学仿真模型，进行了仿真实验和决策分析。根据分析结果，提出了人员紧急疏散行动指挥的辅助决策方案，指出了人员紧急疏散行动开始前应做好的准备工作和人员紧急疏散过程中的注意事项。更多还原

【Abstract】 In modern warfare, urban emergency evacuation is one of the effective means of protection; it can help make up for inadequate protective shelter. Thus the issue of emergency evacuation is a hot spot in present security studies. With the rapid development of modern society, our army is now faced up to new conditions, rendering emergency evacuation direction a pivotal task not only in warring period but in peaceful times. It’s essential that we delve into the issue of emergency evacuation direction through modern cutting-edge simulating technologies in order to make scientific decisions and improve the Command efficacy of our army in modern wars.The purpose of my paper is to gain a profound insight into the issue of emergency evacuation direction in modern warfare. It is based on the modern-war directing theories, analyzing the basic characteristics and tactics of emergency evacuation, outlining the constituents and essential activities of the comprehensive evacuation system, summarizing the rules, directing thoughts and fundamental principles of it in modern wars. It also established the institutions of emergency evacuation direction and made out its basic procedures. On this basis, using system dynamics theory and simulation technology that combine theory with practice. The combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis method, the goal of the emergency evacuation system analysis and structural analysis, established emergency evacuation system dynamics simulation model for the simulation and decision analysis. It presented the preparatory work before the emergency evacuation and the important issues in the course of it according to the simulation-aided decisions.更多还原