【作者】 王志峰；

【导师】 陈海；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 伴随着因特网发展,随之而来的是其不断扩充的规模、日益增加的复杂性以及成倍增长的带宽。但是人们对它的认识还远远不够深入,网络测量在这样的情况下应运而生,本文通过对网络流量的测量、建模、预测和分析,从而实现对网络行为的观察和评估。本文首先介绍了网络测量和网络管理的基本概念以及相关理论。其次,详细说明了网络流量测量技术和流量数据的采集及模型分析。在对流量数据进行数据采集时,使用了数据包捕获技术,基于JPCAP采集共享以太网网段内的数据。由于高速网络技术的发展,对流量数据进行全分组测量开销较大,因此本文引入抽样采集的方法加以解决。最后本文以日常用户的流量为例,阐述了本课题中流量预测与分析的整个过程,包括流量数据的采集,流量预测模型的建立,流量预测值与实际值的对比分析。本课题实现了在IP网络环境下对日常用户的流量进行了采集,并把采集到的数据进行分组抽样,根据抽样数据特征选取了AR（P）数学模型进行了流量预测,并把预测的流量数据与实际数据进行了对比分析。在采集方面,本文采用了JPCAP监听方式采集数据,在预测方面,由于本文研究的是平稳序列模型,所以本文主要介绍了AR、MA、ARMA模型。通过对（?）_kk的图像以及样本数字特征分析发现此序列具有截尾性,模型的阶数为2,因此本文序列适合模型为AR（2）。在分析方面,通过流量预测值与实际值的对比分析,发现两种图形流量的峰值点个数、图形的大致走向以及图形的相似程度基本相似。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the development of the Internet, the attendant is constantly expanding its scale, the increasing complexity of the bandwidth and doubled. But in it is far from enough in-depth knowledge, network measurement in such circumstances came into being, Based on the network traffic measurement, modeling, forecasting and analysis, thus achieving the network of observation and assessment.In this paper, network measurement and network management related to the basic concepts and theories. Second, the detailed description of network traffic flow measurement technology and data collection and model analysis. The flow of data in data acquisition, the use of a data packet capture technology, based on JPCAP Acquisition Ethernet data sharing. Due to the development of high-speed network technology for the entire data packet flow measurement spending more, this paper introduces the method of sample collection to be addressed. Finally this paper flow to the day-to-day users example, the subjects described in the flow forecasts and analysis of the entire process, including the flow of data acquisition, flow forecast model, flow forecast and the actual value of the comparative analysis.To achieve this topic in the IP network environment on a day-to-day flow of the user’s collection, and the collected data packet sampling, based on sample data selected characteristics AR （P） a mathematical model of flow forecast, and forecast flow data and the actual data were analyzed. In the acquisition area, the paper used JPCAP listening mode data collection, forecasting, as this paper is a smooth series model, this paper AR, MA, ARMA model. Based on the sample images of （φ|^）_kk and found several features of this sequence with Censored, the order of the model for 2, so this sequence suitable model AR （2）. In the analysis, flow through predictive value and the actual value of the comparative analysis, found that the peak flow of two graphics number of points, graphics and graphics broadly similar to the basic level of similarity.更多还原