【作者】 刘文标；

【导师】 傅春；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 鄱阳湖水位受赣江、抚河、信江、饶河与修水五河和长江来水的双重影响,五河汛期一般3～7月,主汛期为4～6月,而长江汛期多为5～10月,每年3～6月湖水位随五河洪水入湖而逐步上升,但仅五河出现大洪水时,湖口水位一般不为年最高水位。7～9月五河来水减少,但长江干流进入主汛期,长江涨水,湖水出流常受长江洪水顶托,水位迅速上升。据湖口站1991～2007年资料统计,湖口站实测水位高于20.00m的年份,年最高水位基本都出现在7月。因此,鄱阳湖年最高水位主要受长江洪水控制。本文在已有研究成果的基础上,根据三峡水库运行初期的运行方案,通过建立的洪水演进模型,模拟得出三峡水库运行后鄱阳湖水位流量的变化,分析三峡水库运行对鄱阳湖洪水位频率的影响与变化趋势,为长江中下游科学防洪提供依据,为鄱阳湖区的经济发展提供保障。本文主要研究内容如下;(1)收集鄱阳湖湖口站1950～2007年年最高水位资料,1991～2007年逐日水位流量资料,统计分析历年年最高水位及历年5、6月月最高水位,应用P-Ⅲ曲线进行频率的模拟与分析,分析得出鄱阳湖洪水频率的现状;(2)根据长江中下游河道的特点,将宜昌～湖口河段划分为4个计算单元,建立大湖洪水演进模型;宜昌～沙市、沙市～城陵矶、城陵矶～汉口、汉口～湖口。并且对宜昌～湖口的支流作简化处理,只考虑较大支流的影响,宜昌～沙市段只考虑清江的流入及松滋、太平口的流出;沙市～城陵矶段只考虑洞庭湖湘水、资水、沅水和澧水;城陵矶～汉口只考虑汉江的影响;汉口～湖口段只考虑鄱阳湖赣江、抚河、信江、饶河和修水的影响;(3)根据三峡水库运行初期的调度方案,依据初期的蓄泄过程,通过长江中下游洪水演进模型,模拟得出鄱阳湖湖口站的水位变化值,统计得到湖口站年最高水位与5、6月的月最高水位,而后应用P-Ⅲ曲线进行频率的模拟与分析,得出三峡水库运行初期对鄱阳湖汛期高水位变化趋势的影响及对5月和6月月最高水位变化趋势的影响。结果表明,三峡水库运行初期对鄱阳湖汛期年最高水位的影响值在0～0.7m,平均为0.12m。三峡水库运行初期使鄱阳湖汛期高水位——20.00m出现频率加大,由25%增大至43.5%。三峡水库运行初期对鄱阳湖汛期5月月最高水位影响大,影响范围为0.02～1.63m,平均为0.85m。而6月月最高水位影响范围为0.02～0.93m,平均为0.45m。更多还原

【Abstract】 Poyang Lake water level is suffered from the dual impact of five rivers(Gan River,Fu River,Xin River,Rao River,Xiu River) and the Yangtze River. The five rivers flood season generally is in March to July, the main flood season is in April to June, and the Yangtze flood season often is in May to October. Poyang Lake water level gradually increase with five rivers flooding into the lake, but only five rivers are in the flood, Poyang Lake water level generally is not the highest level for the year. Fiver rivers water supply reduce in July to September, but mainstream of the Yangtze River entered the main flood season. Poyang Lake is maintained in a hight level by Yangtze River, as a result,the water level rises rapidly. According to the material statistics 1991-2007 year on Hukou station, the year maximum high-water all appears in July in the year of the Hukou station water level to be higher than 20.00m.Therefore, Poyang Lake year maximum high-water is mainly controlled by the Yangtze River flood.Based on the ready-made research results,this paper,according to the initial period movement plan of the Three Gorges Reservoir,applys the establishment flood evolution model and simulates the variation of the Poyang Lake water level and discharge after the running of Three Gorges Reservoir. Analyzing the Poyang Lake flood level frequency and the chang tendency of the Three Gorges Reservoir running,which provide the safeguard for the Poyang Lake area economical development and the science flood prevention for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.This article main research content is as follows:(1) Collecting the yearly maximum water level data from 1950~2007of Hukou station,and the dayly water level and discharge materials in 1991-2007,which are analysist to the serial of the maximum water level and the monthly maximum water level in May and June yearly. And arrive at the Poyang Lake flood frequency at present,applying the P- III frequcency simulation and analysis curve;(2) According to the characteristic of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,establish the Great Lake Flood Evoluton Model,divising 4 computing element in Yichang to Hukou: Yichang to Shashi, Shashi to Chenglingji, Chenglingji to Hankou,Hankou to Hukou. And makes simplification processing to the Yichang to Hukou’s branch,only considered the big branch the influence,the Yichang to Shashi section only considers Qing River’s inflow and Songci and Taipingkou’s outflow;The Shashi to Chenglingji section only considers the Xiang River, Zi River,Yuan River and Li River of the Dongting Lake;The Chenglingji to Hankou only considers Hanjiang River’s influence;The Hankou to Hukou section only considered the Gan River, Fu River, Xin River,Rao River and Xiu River’s influence;(3) According to the operation plan of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the initial period,simulate the change of the water level in Hukou station,based on the accumulation and release process,applying the flood evolution model in middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Statistics the serical of the maximum water level and the month maximum water level in May and June year after year,and obtains the high water mark change tendency influence in Poyang Lake flood season and the month maximum water level chang tendency influence in May and June of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the initial period using the P-III frequcency simulation and analysis curve;The result indicated that,the maximum water level change influence value in Poyang Lake is 0-0.7m of the Three Gorges Reservoir movement in initial period,the average is 0.12m.And enlarge the frequency in Poyang Lake flood season high water mark -20.00m ,by 25% increases to 43.5%.The running of Three Gorges Reservoir in initial period,affected the monthly maximum hight water level,most seriously is in May. The affected scope is 0.02-1.63 m,with average of 0.85m.The affected scope in June is from 0.02-0.93m,with average of 0.45m.更多还原