我国电信企业并购风险研究

【作者】 朱晓惠；

【导师】 李序颖；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 产业经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 在新经济背景下,并购作为企业扩张的一种有效途径,己经得到越来越多的全球电信企业的青睐。我国运营商的并购仍处在起步和探索阶段,由于并购企业涉及很多资本运作和融合等问题,且中国部分企业国际投资经验匮乏,因而并购成功率很低,风险极高。因此国内电信企业的并购面临着并购风险的巨大挑战。本文基于产业经济理论和并购经济理论,深入分析电信产业的特性、趋势及并购推动因素。总结归纳风险特征、风险因素和风险事件,进一步做相应风险识别和评价;从案例实证出发,对重点并购风险因素进行深入研究和探索,最后提出基于电信企业并购风险的防范建议。以期帮助电信企业决策者对并购扩张的理性思考,同时为我国电信企业并购风险的分析提供思路与方法上的启示。本文在第一章中阐明研究背景、意义与目的、探讨该研究的可行性、并界定基本范畴、介绍相关方法和国内外的研究成果以及本文的研究思路和框架。本文第二章从理论入手,研究电信产业特性并总结电信企业并购动因。从系统性和阶段性角度分析电信企业并购风险。发现追求协同效应、减少竞争者、规模经济和范围经济是所有电信运营商进行并购的原因。从风险的阶段性和系统性角度,本文第三章从特征、根源和表现形式各方面对我国电信企业并购风险进行深入分析。识别、总结出我国电信企业并购的几个重要风险:政治法律风险、资本运作风险、市场环境风险、整合风险。发现资本运作风险因素在并购活动中的突出重要性,是所有并购风险的归宿。因此在第四章中针对该风险进行具体实证分析。文章第四章在前文对并购风险进行理论分析的基础上,通过一些电信企业并购的财务及年报数据,用案例实证方法分析电信企业资本运作风险,以此挖掘该风险对电信并购活动的影响程度。其中运用到现金流量贴现法,层次分析法和现金存量法。最终。经计算分析发现,电信并购只有根据其产业资本特性,合理适当地进行资本运作和方法选择,才能有效降低并购风险。最后根据风险防范策略体系,我国电信企业现状和市场环境,有正对性地提出提出一些风险防范建议:从战略发展的高度明确并购目的、谨慎选择并购目标、正确言癫⒐悍绞胶秃鲜实牟⒐菏被取更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the new-economic background, M &A has been paid attention to by more and more telecom enterprises as a resultful method for enterprise expanding. "Economies of scale advantage" represented by M&A makes these enterprises, which ever were suffered from rapidness in technology and competition in market, have to change their original ideas that corporation’ s growth only depends on self-accumulation. In recent years, Chinese telecom operation enterprises have taken several M&A activities continuously home and abroad to gain potential profit and cover more geographic business scale. But practice has proved that M&A as a systems engineering is numerous and complicated, and lots of risks exist in it. And it was just because many companies were not cognizant of risks and didn’t take any actions to deal with them, few M&A deal was successful. So how to rightly identify and deal with risks is the key to success of M&A.However, domestic ones’ M&A just started and in the phase of exploration. Because M&A has something to do with problems such as capital operation and merger and these companies lack of overseas invest experiences, the probability of success was low and risks were very high. Thus, our telecom enterprises are facing up big challenges of M&A risks.Based on industrial economic theory and M&A theory, this thesis in-depth analysis the characteristics of the telecom industry, trends and the factors promoting the M&A. From the large number of case studies, summarized risk characteristics, risk factors and risks, accordingly further risk identification and evaluation. Then study and explore the key risk in empirical way. Finally, put forward some telecom M&A risk prevention recommendations.The full thesis is divided into five parts as following. Part I: Aggregate related metric theories in M&A and risk measurement; Part II: From theory, the paper study telecom industry, and concluded telecom M&A motivation. Then show the analysis method with risk characteristics systemicly and phasely ; Part III: From aspects of the root、characteristics and manifestations in-depth analysis the Chinese telecom M&A behaviors; Part IV: Study the capital operation risk in cases studying way with some telecom enterprises’ financial data and annual reports data; Part V: Put forward some risk prevention recommendations according risk prevention strategy.From the results of study and the course of analysis, two purposes are expected to reach by the paper: one is to help decision-makers of telecom enterprises to think M&A rationally; the other is to give some revelations on thought and method in risk analysis of M&A of Chinese telecom enterprises.更多还原