国际收支失衡对基础货币的影响

【作者】 刘澈；

【导师】 范立夫；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本文主要研究了国际收支失衡对基础货币的影响。全文共分五大部分，第一部分为引言，主要交待了本文的研究背景和研究意义。第二部分为国际收支失衡对基础货币影响的理论解释，这部分首先在对我国国际收支失衡进行简要论述的基础上说明了国际收支失衡的原因；接下来从中央银行资产负债表等角度论述了国际收支失衡对基础货币的影响，并阐述了国际收支失衡主要通过“汇率体制传导机制”对基础货币产生影响。第三部分为国际收支失衡对基础货币影响的实证分析，本部分首先对外汇占款对基础货币的影响进行了实证分析，通过实证分析我们可以知道，外汇占款对基础货币有着十分重要的影响；其次，对基础货币的供给来源进行了分析，通过研究我们可以知道在基础货币的供给来源中，外汇占款是十分重要的部分，这也说明了影响外汇占款的国际收支失衡因素确实对基础货币有着重要的影响；最后，我们对“汇改”以来外汇占款和基础货币之间的关系进行了研究，通过研究我们可以知道，2005年7月的人民币汇率形成机制改革并没有对外汇占款和基础货币之间的关系造成显著的影响，这就说明在“汇改”后，国际收支失衡和基础货币之间的“汇率体制传导机制”仍然存在。第四部分为国际收支失衡对我国货币政策的影响及政策建议，在这部分，我们首先简要说明了国际收支失衡对国民经济的影响；其次说明了国际收支失衡导致的基础货币变化对我国货币政策的影响，着重说明了中央银行为了减小国际收支失衡对货币政策操作的不利影响而进行的干预、冲销等操作措施及这些措施的局限性；最后在本部分前述论述的基础上提出了一定的政策建议。第五部分为本文的结论部分。本文力图在对国际收支失衡对基础货币的影响进行研究的基础上提出相应的政策建议，以此来为我国国民经济的稳定、健康发展做出一定的贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article is studying on the influence of the unbalance of China’s BOP (Balanceof Payment) to the basic money. The article is divided into five parts. The first partis the introduction of the background and significance. The second part mainlyintroduced the related theories. Firstly, there is a description of the reason to theunbalance of China’s BOP on the basic of an introduction of the unbalance ofChina’s BOP. After that is the analysis of the same influence from the balance sheetof the central bank. Then it is put that the unbalance of China’s BOP influent thebasic money mainly from "exchange rate transmitting mechanism". The third partdemonstrated the influence of the unbalance of China’s BOP to the basic money.Firstly, it is the demonstration of the influence of funds outstanding for foreignexchange to basic money. Then it is got that funds outstanding for foreignexchange has a very important influence to basic money. Secondly, it is the analysisof the source of basic money. From the analysis above, we got that in the source ofbasic money funds outstanding for foreign exchange is a very important part. So thefactors which influent funds outstanding for foreign exchange will significantlyaffect basic money. At the end of this part, it is the study of the relationship betweenfunds outstanding for foreign exchange and basic money after China’s reform ofexchange rate system. Through the study we got that the reform of exchange ratesystem of RMB didn’t significantly affect the relationship between fundsoutstanding for foreign exchange and basic money. It is to say that the exchangerate transmitting mechanism still exist after the reform. The forth part point out theinfluence of the unbalance of China’s BOP to basic money and also somesuggestions. In this part, we firstly described how the unbalance of BOP affects theeconomy of a country. Furthermore, we discussed when the unbalance of BOP leadto changes in basic money, how will the changes affect the monetary police of China. We focused on centre bank’s measurements such as intervening, offset and the limits of these measurements. At last of this part are some suggestions we got on the basis of the analysis above. The fifth part is the conclusion of this article. This article is purposed on giving some related strategic suggestions after a carefully study of the influence of the unbalance of China’s BOP to the basic money. May it is of some help to the development of our country.更多还原