【作者】 王蕾；

【导师】 周应恒； 章寿荣；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 产业经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 1998年我国结束了传统的福利分房制度,从此与普通家庭息息相关的住房进入了市场化流通的时代。住房市场化使得房地产行业成为我国经济的一个新增长点,保证了通货紧缩时期我国经济的可持续增长,也减轻了长期以来传统福利分房制度给政府和企业带来的沉重负担。然而,由于住房市场化所处的宏观环境(例如长期以来普通居民收入水平不高、相应的制度供给的缺失等)尚不成熟,伴随着住房市场化进程的是一边持续上涨的房价使得普通家庭不堪重负,另一边住房市场不断升温。本文主要把房地产价格分解成需求和供给两个方面,从市场的需求和供给的角度,分析目前中国房地产价格上涨的原因,同时从经济学上对政府的调控政策做一评价。具体研究的内容主要包括(1)分析目前房地产市场的现状以及呈现如此格局的原因;(2)在(1)的基础上,通过经济模型分析解决这一格局的根本措施,并且对近几年政府调控手段做一评价;(3)从政府行为出发,分析房地产市场是否具有垄断定价或者双重垄断定价的可能,并且提出政策建议。通过分析,我们认为目前中国房地产市场中:第一投资行为和投机行为挤压了住房市场的购买居住需求,在住房供给不足的情况下,投资行为、投机行为连同大量的潜在需求在支撑房价的长期增长,物业税是抑制过度投资和投机行为的根本调控手段;第二土地制度派生的政府行为以及土地的不连续供给使得政府和房地产开发商具有操纵市场价格的能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 China had finished the traditional welfare house-allocation system since 1998. From then on housing which is closely linked with the ordinary family entered the market circulation time. The housing market-reform enabled the real estate industry to become a new growth spot in Chinese economy, and has guaranteed our country economy sustainable growth during the deflation time. At the same time housing market-reform reduced the serious burden which the traditional welfare house allocation system brings for the government and the enterprise. However, due to the macroscopic environment that the housing market-reform is facing (for example ordinary inhabitant low income level, corresponding institution supplies deficient) still is not perfect, following the house market advancement the house price continues to rise at the same time to cause the ordinary family to be unable to withstand the heavy burden, meanwhile the real estate industry is expanding rapidly.This article analyzes reasons about the present house price’s rising in market, mainly from the market demand and the supplies views, and makes an appraisal to government’s regulative policy from economic view. The specific research mainly includes (1) to analyze the present situation about housing market as well as its reasons; (2) on the base of (1), puts forward the basic measures through the economic model analysis to solve this problem, and make an appraisal to the government’s regulations in recent years; (3) focuses on the government behavior and analyzes whether real estate market does have the monopoly price or the dual monopoly price possibility, and puts forward the policy proposal.Through the analysis, we believe the fact that the present situation of China house market has two deep problems. The first, investment and speculative behaviors have extruded the housing demand, and under environment of housing supplies insufficient, they and massive latent demands are supporting house price long-term growth. The property tax is the basic regulative method to suppress investment and speculative behaviors; the second, government behavior and incontinuity of land supplies enable local governments and enterprises to have the ability to operate the market price.更多还原