【作者】 刘璐；

【导师】 刘辉煌；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代是贸易自由化和区域经济一体化迅猛发展的时代。建立中国-东盟自由贸易区是中国经济高速增长以后与国际经济紧密融合的客观要求,也是中国入世以后实现各种承诺,发展双边关系的必然选择。通过理论分析与实证分析相结合的方式,分析中国与东盟双边贸易的发展和影响因素,对我们制定正确的外贸政策有着重大的指导意义。本文在研究中国与东盟双边贸易发展现状的基础上,利用显性比较优势、贸易互补性指数、贸易专业化指数和产业内贸易测算指标分析了中国与东盟双边贸易的竞争和互补关系。从各项指数看,中国与东盟各国具有比较优势的产品种类存在一定的差别,具有一定的互补性,同时中国与东盟主要国家具有互补关系的产品与各国的出口产品也大致相符,这些都表明中国与东盟主要国家的双边贸易具有坚实的物质基础。同时分析结果显示双方间的贸易正逐渐从产业间贸易向产业内贸易过渡。目前在中国与东盟双边贸易的发展过程中仍然存在着许多有利和不利的影响因素,以这些影响因素为依据,选取2000-2005年间中国与东盟九个主要国家在总量和产业两个层次上的相关统计数据构建引力模型。实证结果表明:国内生产总值的增长、中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立、关税减让等促进了双边贸易的发展,距离因素的消极作用则比较显著,而且各因素对不同产业的影响程度略有不同。最后根据分析结果提出双方应协调好经贸关系,调整产业结构,加强合作,减少竞争,以推动自由贸易区的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 90s in 20 centuries is the ages which trade liberalization and regional economic integration develop rapidly. Building up the China-ASEAN free trade area is not only the objective request to mix closely with the international economy after the rapid growth of Chinese economy, but also the necessary choice to fulfill all the promises and to develop the bilateral relation after China’s accession to WTO. The paper tries to make researches into the trade development and factors on bilateral trade using theoretical and practical analysis, which has guiding significance for us to make the correct foreign trade policy .Based on the research of the bilateral trade status between China and ASEAN, this paper analyzes the competitive and complementary relations of the bilateral trade utilizing the revealed comparative advantage index, trade complementary index, trade specialization coefficient index and intra-industry trade index. Judging from various indicators, the products which have comparative advantage are different between China and ASEAN, and the products which have complementary relation are similar to the exports, which shows that the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN have solid foundation. Meanwhile, the results show that the trade between them is transferring from the inter-industry trade to the intra-industry trade. Then, the paper researches the factors on bilateral trade through theoretical analysis. The gravity model which is established using 2000-2005 panel data of nine countries in ASEAN and China on total and industrial level is used in analyzing the factors on bilateral trade. The result of this research shows that growth of the GDP, establishment of CAFTA and tariff concessions promote the development of the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN,but distance takes negative role in the bilateral trade, and the impact on various industry is slightly different. Furthermore, according to the analysis’s results, this paper puts forward the suggestion to promote the development of free trade area by coordinating with trade relations,adjusting the industrial structure, strengthening cooperation and reducing competition.更多还原