【作者】 王洪岩；

【导师】 龚福麒；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 产业经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 2000年以来，大庆已经彻底告别了福利分房的时代，住房已经作为一种商品走进了人们的生活。对于大庆这样的老工业城市，房地产业发展速度尽管落后于沿海开放城市，但也得到了快速发展。通过本文研究，希望能够对于类似大庆这样的老工业城市的住宅房地产价格研究起到一定的借鉴作用。本文首先从理论上探讨了房地产的相关概念、属性，并对房地产市场需求理论、房价的形成理论、地价的形成理论，房地产周期、房地产泡沫以及房地产市场预测方法等房地产理论和研究方法进行了简单介绍，作为论文后部分市场分析及预测的理论基础；随后，运用这些相关理论对我国房地产市场宏观环境进行了详细分析，通过对我国房地产发展背景和发展现状的分析，对我国房地产未来发展趋势进行了预测；本文运用房地产相关理论对于大庆市房地产市场进行了分析。主要包括大庆市的社会环境、市场供求、房价发展情况分析；并采用定性的方法对大庆房地产市场供需及价格进行了预测，同时采用定量的方法即灰色一马尔柯夫方法对大庆未来房价未来走势进行了分析和预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 2000, people could not enjoy welfare-house and housing as a kind of commodity is coming into people’s life in Daqing. Although the developing pace of real estate of Daqing lags behind the coastal areas’, it is growing rapidly. This paper is wished to be useful to the research of real-estate price in traditional industrial city as Daqing.At first the paper describes the related conception and characteristics of real estate, and briefly introduces the demand theory of real estate market, the price forming theory of real estate, the real estate cycle, the foam of the real estate, the theories of real estate such as the market forecasting methods and research methods which lays a solid foundation for the market analysis and forecasting in the latter of the paper. Then, the macro-environment of Chinese real estate is analyzed in detail and the developing trend of Chinese real estate is foreseen based on the analysis of the background and present state of Chinese real estate.The paper analyzes the market of Daqing’s real estate by virtue of the related theories of real estate including the analysis of Daqing’s social surrounding, the supply and demand in market and the present situation of price development and forecasts the supply and demand and price of Daqing’s real estate via qualitative methods. And at the same time the paper analyzes and forecasts the future trend of Daqing’s real estate using quantitative approach namely grey-Marcof.更多还原