【作者】 张军；

【导师】 周伟国； 薛少成；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 动力工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险评价及管理系统建设的目的就在于对所面临的风险进行评价与预测，将系统的风险程度控制在合理的可接收的范围内，并确定合理的事故应急措施，以达到降低系统风险发生的概率和后果的严重性，在风险评价基础上完善天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险管理。本文通过对国内外风险评估理论的回顾和分析，结合无锡市天然气输配管网及应用系统的实际情况，选择出合适无锡地区的风险评估方法，对系统失效可能性进行评价，对失效后果进行评估，并通过风险等级的划分，对系统进行预防措施的研究，完成天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险管理规划。本文分别建立了天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险管理体系。首先建立天然气输配管网风险评价模型，分析第三方损坏、腐蚀、设计缺陷及材料缺陷等因素对天然气输配管网的风险影响，以管道指数风险评价法分析评价系统的失效概率及后果，确定风险程度，建立天然气输配管网风险决策控制系统。然后分析无锡市天然气应用事故的原因，结合用户使用天然气的情况，建立天然气应用风险分析故障树，通过对天然气应用系统的风险评价，提出天然气用户在应用过程中的安全保护措施，对天然气应用系统进行风险管理。最后以风险评价及管理体系为基础，进行软件开发，编制城市天然气输配管网及应用系统的应用软件。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to evaluate and forecast a risky system, risk assessment and safety management on natural gas transmission and distribution network and utility system is necessary. Some available emergency measures are determined to control the risk degree of the system within a reasonable scope. After that risk probability and aftereffect severity of the system will reduce. Based on the risk assessment, the safety management of natural gas pipeline network and utility system will be consummated.By the theoretical review and analysis on risk evaluation both here and aboard, the operational situation of natural gas pipeline network and utility system in Wuxi is investigated. And then the evaluation of system failure probability and aftereffect is done with the selected reasonable and effective methods. According to the risk grade obtained, some preventive measures are proposed to reduce the system risk. Based on these researches, the risk management systems of natural gas pipeline network and utility system are built up respectively.Firstly, the risk assessment model of gas pipeline network is set up. The risk factors such as the third-party damage, corrosion, bad design and material, are analyzed in detail. With the pipeline index risk assessment method, the failure probability and consequence of the evaluated system are received. After the risk degree is evaluated, the pipeline risk control and decision-making system is established.Secondly, considering the current situation of gas users in Wuxi, the accident causes of natural gas utility system are studied. By evaluating the fault tree constructed, the safety control and risk management are put forward.Finally, on the basis of the risk evaluation and management system, the related software is developed.更多还原