【作者】 鲍岳建；

【导师】 王式功； 吉惠敏；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 气象学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 相似预报方法是气象预报员制作天气预报的主要经验方法之一，预报员往往依据对历史上相似天气信息的积累和综合判断，提出自己的主观预报意见。本研究旨在根据相似天气预报的原理和计算方法，开发多重相似预报系统，为气象预报业务提供有价值的客观的预报工具。本研究利用1951-2005年的500hPa历史资料、甘肃省80个气象站的历史气象要素资料，由用户选择性输入各类参数值，包括历史资料和对比中心文件、起止年、关键区、平均日数、滑动日数和预报时效等，再根据各相似预报因子的理论公式进行相似计算，查找出历史上的相似天气个例，最后直接通过MICAPS系统调用历史气象要素资料库，制作直观指导预报产品。本研究综合分析了多个相似预报的相似因子理论计算公式，改进了传统的单一相似计算模式；系统与现用MICAPS气象信息综合分析系统有机结合，使得应用十分方便。本研究中相似预报的计算采用了多重相似因子，使得结论更具参考意义，系统的适用性更强；多重相似预报系统达到了气象部门常规业务化要求，为日常天气预报增加了一个有力的助手工具，而且系统的指导预报作用明显，具有特色和创意。多重相似预报系统的研究从实际业务需求出发，系统开发完成后在气象各级台站都可以作为预报工具使用。在开发该系统过程中，考虑了移植的方便性，做成了“绿色软件”，直接拷贝、设置参数即可使用，同时保持了与气象业务现有历史资料格式的兼容性，推广十分方便。通过兰州区域中心气象台的业务试运行，表明该系统对天气预报具有较好的指导意义，值得向各级气象台站推广应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Similitude forecasting is one of the main methods used by weather forecaster to make weather forecast. Weather forecaster always gives out the opinion, according to accumulation of the similar weather information record in history and synthetical judgment. The purpose of the study is to create multi-similitude forecasting system, which is based on the theory and formula of similitude weather forecast, so as to provide valuable objective tool for weather forecasting.Historical material of 500hPa from 1951 to 2005, and historical weather element information of 80 meteorological observation stations in Gansu Province were utilized. User can select different kinds of parameters to put into the system, including historical material and collative central document, the start year and end year, key area, average days, slippage days, effectivity of forecasting and so on. Similar weather examples could be found out by using formulas of similar factors theory. At last, the historical weather elements database was transferred by MICAPS system in order to give direction to forecasting.Synthetical analysis of similar factors theory formulas within many similitude forecasting were analyzed in this study, and traditional single calculation mode had been improved, which could make the application very easy, since the systematical combination of the system and MICAPS.In this study,multi-similitude factors have been used in the calculation of forecasting; the conclusion is more significant of reference and the system is more applicable in result; multi-similitude forecasting system has reached the requirement of general operation in meteorological department, which could be an assistant of daily weather forecasting; and the role of forecasting instruction is outstanding. It’s own characteristics and creative points.The study of the multi-similitude forecasting system is based on practical operation requirement. The system can be used as a forecasting tool in any meteorological stations when the work of exploitation is finished. During the system exploitation, convenience of transplanting is considering, therefore, green software is made. When it is used, the only thing we need to do is copy directly and set parameters. The merit of the system is new information and historical material can be well compatible with each other, which makes popularization much easier. After the test in the central meteorological observation of Lanzhou area, it is found that the system is significant for weather forecasting and worth to apply in any meteorological observation stations.更多还原