【作者】 张新燕；

【导师】 刘光中；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 财政收入是国家进行宏观调控的基础。随着社会主义市场经济体制的建立与完善，财政工作面临着重大的机遇与挑战：一方面财政职能得到显著增强，已经成为宏观经济调控的重要手段之一；另一方面财政工作难以适应经济发展的需要，迫切需要增强预见性。在新形势下，财政收入预测问题越来越被各级领导所重视，已经成为经济领域的一个迫切需要研究的重要问题。在我国现行的分税制财政管理体制下，地方财政收入不仅是国家财政收入的重要组成部分，而且具有其相对独立的构成内容。因此，对地方财政收入进行预测，不仅是必要的，而且也是可能的。科学、合理地预测地方财政收入，对于克服年度地方预算收支规模确定的随意性和盲目性，正确处理地方财政与经济的相互关系具有十分重要的意义。地方财政收入预测是加强宏观经济管理和提高决策水平的重要前提和基础。由于受到经济发展水平、财政收入政策以及财政收入征收管理等众多因素的影响，所以要科学预测地方财政收入，必须综合考虑各种因素的影响，建立科学的预测体系。本文以四川省县级财政一般收入为研究对象，建立了预测模型。本文分为五部分，第一部分介绍论文的选题背景以及研究意义；第二部分介绍了国内财政收入研究中的主要预测方法、预测模型的大体发展趋势，以及与财政收入预测模型相关的研究方向成果，还介绍了国内某些省份关于地方财政收入预测模型的研究成果；第三部分介绍了地方财政一般收入预测模型构建流程和预测方法，是本研究的主要框架和理论基础，包括自组织数据挖掘输入输出模型、时间序列模型、神经网络模型；第四部分是本文的重点，是基于四川省的财政一般收入数据所进行的模型实证研究，用自组织数据挖掘方法、时间序列方法、神经网络方法对四川省县级财政一般收入构建预测模型，并把自组织数据挖掘输入输出模型、时间序列模型、神经网络模型的预测结果进行对比分析，找出较好的方法；第五部分对全文进行了总结，总结了本文研究的成果与存在的不足，提出本文的创新之处，并对未来的研究进行展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Financial revenue is the foundation of the national macroeconomic control. With the establishment and the consummation of socialism market economy system, the financial work is facing significant opportunity and challenge: On the one hand the financial function gets stronger, and it have already become one important method of macroeconomic regulation and control; On the other hand the financial work can not meet the need of economic development, so it is urgent to strengthen the forecast. Under the new situation, the forecast of financial revenue gets regarded, and have already become the important question that should be studied.Under present system of dividing taxes financial control, the local financial revenue is not only the important part of the national financial revenue, and it also has relatively independent constitution. So it is necessary and possible to forecast the local finance revenue. Forecasting the local finance revenue scientifically and logically is very important to deal with the relationship of the local financial revenue and the economy.The forecast of local financial revenue is the important precondition and foundation of strengthening the macroeconomic management and raising the level of decision. Affected by the level of economic development, the financial revenue policy and other factors, the forecast of local financial revenue should consider the influence of each factor, to establish the scientific forecast system.This article takes financial general revenue of Sichuan province as the research object, to establish the forecast model. This article includes following five aspects:First, introduce the background of selected topic and research significance;Second, introduce the domestic financial revenue forecast method, development tendency of the forecast model, the correlative research achievement and the results of financial revenue forecast model research in some domestic provinces;Third, introduce the forecast model of local financial general revenue, including GMDH model, time series model and nerve network model;Fourth, this part is important, taking financial general revenue of Sichuan province as the research object, establish GMDH model, time series model and nerve network model to forecast, then contrast and analyze forecast result and choose a better method.Fifth, conclusion and expectation.更多还原