【作者】 王法中；

【导师】 冯夕文；

【作者基本信息】 山东科技大学 ， 资源经济与管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着物流科学在我国的兴起和发展，人们对物流成本的关心程度不断提高，降低物流成本已经成为物流管理的一项重要任务。物流成本占煤炭生产成本的比重很大，研究煤炭企业物流成本对提高煤炭企业的经济效益、提高煤炭企业的竞争能力有着非常重要的意义。本文首先从研究煤炭企业物流系统入手，指出了煤炭企业物流系统的组成、特点、存在的问题及与物流成本之间存在的关系。接着对煤炭企业物流成本进行了分析研究，指出了煤炭企业物流成本的特点、组成以及影响因素，并利用层次分析方法对主要影响因素进行了总体排序，为后文的建模奠定了基础。最后，对煤炭企业物流成本预测进行了详细的研究，这一部分也是本论文的核心部分。重点针对影响煤炭企业物流成本的因素以及煤炭企业物流成本所具有的非线性特点和神经网络在解决复杂非线性系统问题方面所具有的优势，提出了采用BP神经网络来进行物流成本预测的方法。建立了基于BP神经网络的物流成本预测模型并应用具体数据对模型进行了模拟和预测，结果表明该方法预测精度高，是一种实际可行的预测方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the starting and development of the logistics science in our country, people unceasingly to enhance the degree that about logistics cost, to reduce the logistics cost has already become an important task of the enterprise. The logistics cost accounts for a very big part of the coal production cost, to research the logistics cost of coal enterprise has much more important significance to enhance the economic efficiency and the competitive ability of the coal enterprise.Firstly, this article begins with the research of the coal enterprise logistics system, and points out the composition, the characteristic, the existent questions of the logistics system of the coal enterprise and the relations that between the logistics system and the logistics cost. After that it researches the logistics cost of the coal enterprise, points out the characteristic, the composition as well as the influencing factors of the logistics cost, and use the level analysis method to arrange major influencing factors in line, this step lays the foundation for the modeling. Finally, the core part of this article conducts the detailed research about the forecasting of the logistics cost of the coal enterprise. aiming at the major influencing factor of the logistics cost of coal enterprise as well as the non-linear characteristic of the coal enterprise logistics cost and the superiority that the neural network has in the solution of complex nonlinear system question, propos to use the BP neural network to do the forecasting of the logistics cost, establishs the forecast model of the logistics cost and do simulation and forecasting by frondose dates, the result indicates the precision of this forecast method is high, the convergent rate is quick, is one feasible forecast method.更多还原