中国国际收支不平衡的影响及对策研究

【作者】 滕云静；

【导师】 高金田；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 中国国际收支的平衡表的编制始于1982年,1984年开始公布年度国际收支平衡表,1997年以后的统计指标的设置完全国际可比。在这20多年间,中国国际收支规模及结构发生了很大的变化。而自20世纪后半段以来,更是出现了一个颇为引人注目的现象:自1994年至2005年(除1998年资本与金融账户逆差外),中国国际收支保持着持续的经常项目和资本项目的“双顺差”。这并非是一种常见现象。中国国际收支的“双顺差”结构从而导致国际收支顺差的持续扩大是一系列因素综合作用的结果。它不仅反映了国际宏观经济环境的变化、中国对外经济部门的发展水平,同时也反映出了中国国内经济结构和产业变迁,以及中国相关国际收支调节措施的制定和实施效果。从国际收支整体状况来看,顺差或逆差都属于国际收支失衡状态,影响着一个国家的经济运行、资源配置、资金运用乃至经济伙伴国的相关政策。当前中国国际收支的顺差,虽然有利于增强中国的国际清偿能力,提高投资者对中国经济信心防范和化解国际金融风险,体现中国经济竞争力提高、对外资吸引力增强的良好态势,但是不容忽视的是持续的大额顺差也是国际收支不平衡的表现其隐含的负面因素也同样值得关注。为实现改善国际收支大量顺差这一格局,国家外汇管理局已采取了一系列措施。包括改革外汇账户管理,扩大企业灵活使用外汇的自主权;放宽境外投资外汇限制,支持国内企业“走出去”;有选择分步骤地开放证券投资,拓宽资金流入流出渠道;允许移居境外的中国公民将其境内资产转移至境外;允许国际开发机构在境内发行人民币债券等。但国际收支不平衡的调整是一项全局性、战略性的工作,它取决于国内经济结构的调整,涉及诸多方面体制改革和思维方式的转变。本文旨分析中国国际收支不平衡现状,通过分析影响中国未来国际收支的主要因素,对中国国际收支不平衡的未来发展趋势予以判断和预测,进而对中国国际收支不平衡的综合影响进行评估,最后提出中国国际收支调整的模式选择和目标方向,并就实现这一模式和目标提出对策思考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The balance sheet of China International Payment was compiled in 1982. In the year 1984, annual international payment balance sheet began to announce. The setup of the statistic index has been fully internationally comparable since 1997. Great changes have taken place on the scale and structure of international payments balance over 2 decades. A conspicuous phenomenon emerged in the latter half of the 20th century: From 1994 to 2005, China International Payment has maintained a sustainable“double surplus”of the regular item and capital item, which, however, is not a common phenomenon.The reasons why the“double surplus”structure of China’s international payment leads to s sustainable expansion of international balance payment are based on the comprehensive effect of a series of factors. It not only reflects the change of international macro-economic environment, the development level of China’s international economic department, but reflects the flux of China’s internal economic structure and industry and the constitution and implemental effect of China’s relevant international balance regulatory measures.Take a view of the whole conditions of internal balance payments, surplus or deficit both belong to a related policies in which the unbalance status of the international balance payment affects the economic function, resource setup, fund exercise and even the economy fellow countries. Though the present surplus of China international balance payment is beneficial for China’s international discharging ability, improvement of investors’confidence toward China’s economy, solving of international financial risk and embodiment of the improvement of China‘s economy competitiveness and the good situation of a strong absorption for foreign investment, yet what should not be ignored is the facts that a sustainable large sum of surplus is also a kind of unbalance of international payment. The hidden negative facts also should be noticed.China State Foreign Exchange Management Bureau has taken a series of measure to make the improvement of the large sum of international payments surplus come true, including reform the management of foreign exchange accounts, expand the right of autonomy for enterprises of using foreign exchange flexibly, relax restrictions of offshore foreign exchange investment, support“going out”of domestic enterprises, open security investment step by step, broaden the channel of entrance and exit of funds, allow the overseas Chinese citizens to transfer their money from China to other countries and allow international development agencies to issue RMB bonds in China, etc. However, the adjustment of the unbalance of international payments is an overall and strategic job which depends on the adjustment of domestic economic structure involving in various aspects of systemic reform and a change of thinking way.This text aims at analyzing the current conditions of the unbalance of China International Payments. Judge and forecast the future development of China’s unbalance of International payments by the analysis of the main factor influencing China’s future international payments, give an appraisal of the comprehensive influence of the unbalance of China’s International payments and at last put forward the adjusted pattern choice and target direction of China international payments for which countermeasures are taken in order to realize it.更多还原