【作者】 雷娜；

【导师】 张英；

【作者基本信息】 中南民族大学 ， 中国少数民族经济， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,借用外债作为我国利用外资的重要形式,有效地促进了我国西部地区经济的持续增长。然而外债具有两重性,任何一种债务都是需要偿还和有借贷成本(即利息)的,这就产生了潜在的偿债风险。因此,随着全球经济一体化和金融市场的进一步深化,西部大开发政策的继续推进以及《西部大开发“十一五”规划》的实施,西部地区在加大引资力度的同时,潜在的外债风险也势必加大。本文在国内外外债利率风险管理理论的基础上,对开放经济条件下我国西部地区外债利率风险管理进行了研究。全文遵循理论,实证和政策研究的基本思路,一共分为五个部分:第一部分为全文的绪论。首先交代了选题的缘由和意义,通过对西部地区外债风险的分析来帮助西部地方政府规避和降低外债利率风险的损失;其次阐述了国内外学者对外债利率风险的相关研究;最后提出了文章的研究内容、研究方法以及创新之处。第二部分是全文的理论基础。从外债、外债风险以及外债利率风险等相关概念出发,总结了与外债利率风险相关的文献,并利用金融学等专业知识从理论上说明了外币贷款利率和人民币贷款利率的差别以及选择不同贷款产品是产生外债利率风险的主要原因。第三部分从宏观上介绍西部地区利用外债情况。在对我国外债规模、外债风险指标分析和总体外债风险评述的基础上,列举了西部地区具有代表性的省区市,分析其外债使用现状,并总结出西部地区外债风险表现在三个方面:生产性项目少、恶性循环和还贷压力大。第四部分对西部地方政府如何规避外债利率风险提出四个方面的建议:第一,应该以市场利率水平来确定使用固定利率还是浮动利率;第二,通过对比三种外债资金来源方式,提出要扩大使用优惠利率而减少使用普通利率;第三,以世界银行在西部地区的一个贷款投资项目为例,说明预测未来国际金融市场上利率,并计算其风险损失,对降低外债利率风险的重要性;第四,利用金融衍生工具来规避外债利率风险。第五部分是本文的结语。根据前面四章的论述,从外债管理的角度对全文的观点进行总结,并提出本人在研究上的不足之处。更多还原

【Abstract】 External debt, as an important form of utilizing foreign capitals, has been promoting the lasting growth of economy effectively since China began to reform and open up. But the external debt has its dualities, because any kind of debt needs to be repaid not only the corpus but also the interest, so the potential crisis of debt repayment comes into being. As a consequence, while the western regions increase the foreign capitals, the latent external debt risk inevitably will be enlarged along with the situations of the global economic integration、the development of financial market as well as the West Exploration’s advancement.On the base of the theory about interest rate risk management of external debt both in domestic and overseas, we give out a research on the interest rate risk management of external debt in western areas in our country under the opening economic condition. The whole thesis can be departed into five chapters through the theoretical and empirical study:The first section is the introduction. Initially, this section has confessed the reason and significance of the selected topic, which will help western local authorities dodge and reduce the loss from external debt interest rate risk through analyzing the western area’s external debt risk. Besides, the part describes the relevant research of domestic and international scholars. Finally, it proposed the research content, the research methods and the innovation of this thesis.The second section is the theoretical basis of the whole article. Beginning with some relevant concepts, such an external debt, external debt risk, external debt interest rate risk and so on, I summarize the literature on external debt interest rate risk. Using specialized knowledge on finance, this part showed theoretically two reasons why there is external debt interest rate risk: one is the disparity between foreign currency loan interest rate and RMB loan interest rate; the other is choosing different loan products.The third section is about the use of the external debt in western regions. On the base of description of external debt’s scale and external debt risk index, this section analyzes the use of external debt of representative provinces and municipalities in western regions. And this part also explained that external debt risk in western areas can be displayed in the following three aspects: less productive projects, vicious circle and repayment pressure.In the fourth section, I present four proposals for western local authorities in dodging external debt interest rate risk. Firstly, the market interest rate should be a standard of choosing the fixed or floating interest rate by comparing three external debt sources. Next, we had better expand the use of preferential interest rate, and reduce the use of general interest rate. What’s more, an example of a loan investment project in Guangxi province of World Bank is taken here, in order to evident that it is critical to predict the interest rate in future international financial market, calculate the risk losses, and reduce external debt interest rate risk. Finally, we can dodge the external debt interest rate risk by financial derivatives, especially interest rate swap.The fifth section is the whole thesis’s conclusion. I summarize the main points of the whole article from the perspective of external debt management, and expound my research deficiencies.更多还原