【作者】 王炜敏；

【导师】 周黎；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 中国房地产业是在改革开放后,随着城镇住房制度和土地使用制度改革的进展逐步复苏并活跃起来的。房地产业具有投资数额大、回收周期长、风险高、投资成败影响面大等特点,但我国大部分房地产公司对风险管理缺乏足够的认识,其风险管理机构均未成立,也没有配置专门的风险管理人员,更谈不上采用科学的风险识别和评价方法。为了规避风险、扩大收益,引进科学的方法事先对其投资风险进行客观、合理的分析与评价是完全必要的,这不仅有益于房地产行业的发展,也有益于整个国民经济的稳定运行。本文首先对风险的概念、特征以及分类进行归纳总结,并介绍了房地产投资项目的风险以及风险分析的理论;然后从多个角度对房地产投资的风险因素进行具体分析,构建了房地产投资项目风险的评价指标体系。同时,本文在对以往项目风险评价方法进行归纳总结的基础上,指出了常用的模糊层次分析法存在的缺陷,引进了基于Matlab软件的人工神经网络模型和灰色马尔可夫模型建立新的风险评价体系;并进一步利用模型求得的风险度,通过对当前净现值表达式的不足之处进行改良,提出了风险度净现值模型,利用该模型将灰色马尔可夫模型和人工神经网络模型贯穿起来,在房地产风险评价领域形成了全新的技术经济评价体系,有效地降低了风险评价中的不确定性成分,完善了房地产投资经济评价度量模型;最后通过实例应用对模型进行了验证,取得了满意效果。房地产投资的风险评价是一个非常复杂的系统评价问题,本文顺应房地产投资风险管理的需要,着力于完善目前房地产投资项目的风险评价体系,提供一种提出问题、分析和解决问题的思路和框架,为决策者进行决策提供参考和借鉴,使其决策更为合理和科学。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the reform and opening, the real estate industry has recovered and developed with the reform of the city housing and land using systems in China. Products and investments of the real estate have their peculiarity:The huge investment, the long payback period, the compound risks, and large extent of the influence of success or failure, etc. But in China a majority of Real Estate Investment Company lack sufficient knowledge in risk management. They not possess the risk management department, and also not configure special risk supervisor, to say nothing of scientific means in risk evaluation and risk analysis. In order to lower the level of risk and enlarge the profit, it is absolutely necessary that objective and reasonable analysis and evaluation of the risk be made and corresponding measures be taken by the investors. These will be of great benefit to the development of the real estate, but also to the stable of national economic situation.First, the conception, characteristic and classification of risk are summed up, the risk of the real estate investment project and the theory of risk analysis are introduced and the function of risk evaluation is pointed out; secondly, risk factors are analyzed particularly from the perspective of the system and the source of risk, the direct action body of risk, the influence of goal which made by the risk and the process of project management separately, then this paper sets up a risk estimate index system of real estate development project.Based on the summary of previous evaluation methods, this paper point out the shortcoming of The Analytical Hierarchy Process in risk evaluation, then introduces new techniques and models such as the Gray Prediction Model and the Artificial Neural Network Model which based on the Matlab software. A new risk estimate system is established in the paper and applied to the practice. Breakeven Point and Sensitivity analysis were revised to make the risk evaluation properly and scientifically. On the basis of the analysis of shortcomings that lie in the previous express formula of the Net Present Value, another kind of express formula, that is to say, the Model of the Net Present Value about Risk Degree, is put forward and the process of answering is explained particularly. At last, a new risk measurement model that considers the investor’s risk degree is brought forward. These models are applied to the real case of a real estate project to evaluate its risk level and satisfactory result is made.The risk evaluation of the real estate investment project is a very complex system evaluation. The paper puts merely forth effort to provide a kind of thinking and frame to analyze and solve this kind of problem and provides reference for the administrator to make the decision more reasonable and scientific.更多还原