【作者】 张文龙；

【导师】 李炳军；

【作者基本信息】 河南农业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 农业是国民经济的基础,有关农业发展问题的研究历来受到国内外学者的重视。提高农业发展水平是各国和各地区产业发展的重要目标之一,推进农业科技发展是提高农业发展水平唯一的选择。对农业科技系统的演化机制问题进行深入的研究,找出农业科技系统发展过程中的主导因素和演化模式,有助于进一步指导农业的发展。本文通过分析农业科技对农业、林业、畜牧业以及水产养殖业发展的作用与影响,基于对国内外有关农业科技研究成果的分析和对中国农业三个阶段发展演化模式的考察,首先从四个方面提出了农业科技系统演化发展的动力机制:人口资源的原始动力、农业政策的推动力、市场经济效益的驱动力、社会经济发展的带动力;其次,利用自组织理论,分析了农业科技系统的自组织演化模式,建立了农业科技系统的白组织演化模型,并定性分析了农业科技系统中子系统间的竞争与协同关系;然后,在自组织理论的基础上,运用哈肯模型建立了农业科技系统的演化方程,结合河南省实际,运用18地市的数据资料,定量论证了反映创新和科技进步的农业劳动生产率是农业科技系统演化的序参量,通过对农业科技系统在更深层次上演化机制问题的进一步探讨,给出了系统中几个可以调控的参数。最后,利用耗散结构理论,结合灰色系统理论,建立了基于灰关联熵的农业科技系统演化方向的判别模型,利用河南省农业科技发展的实际,计算得出了河南省农业科技系统有序演化的方向,并对影响农业科技系统演化的因素进行了评价分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture is the base of national economy; the development of agriculture has been always paid attention to by domestic and international scholars. Improving the level of the development of agriculture is one of the key development goals in various countries and every area. It is the exclusive choice to advance the development of agriculture technology. The study of evolvement mechanism of agriculture technology system is in order to find the leading factors and the pattern of evolvement of agriculture technology system and to help the development of agriculture.This paper analyzes the effect of agriculture technology on agriculture、forestry、stockbreeding、aquiculture and studies three patterns of evolvement of agriculture in China, studying the research on agriculture technology from domestic and international scholars, there are four mechanism: the original dynamical mechanism of population、the impulse mechanism of agriculture policy、the driving mechanism of economical benefit、the following mechanism of society economy. Then, this paper analyzes the evolvement pattern of self-organization, building the evolvement model of self-organization, to analyze the factors that impelling the evolvement between sections is competition and cooperation. Thirdly, evolution equation for agriculture technology system is established relying on Haken model of self-organization theory. Through a positive analysis to the 18 city of Henan province, it is quantitatively demonstrated that the labor productivity reflecting innovation and technical progress is the ordering variable of describing agriculture technology system. And several parameters that can be controlled are given; the evolvement of system is more rational through controlling. Finally, the dissipative structure theory and gray system are applied to establish the distinguishing model. This model is applied to evaluation of agriculture technology system. And through an actual data analysis of Henan province, the conclusion is given that the evolvement of agriculture technology system of Henan is steady and rational.更多还原