【作者】 薛文博；

【导师】 张增强； 段宁；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 环境工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本研究是结合国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)“中国酸雨沉降机制、输送态势及调控原理”(2005CB422200)项目而进行的,在空气质量数值模拟过程中采用了由RAINS-ASIA项目支持,美国Iowa University开发的Atmos预测模型。论文中对Atmos预测模型进行了二次开发,新开发的模式称之为Atmos-China版,Atmos-China版为该973项目的进一步研究奠定了重要基础,是本论文的创新点之一。火电项目的高排放特点,极易导致区域性的大气环境污染。贵州省作为我国酸雨和二氧化硫双重污染的重灾区,“西电东送”大批火电项目的建设势必对本省及周边区域大气环境质量造成更大的危害。因此,分析“西电东送”贵州火电项目的排放状况,预测其造成的环境危害程度,并提出预防措施是十分必要的。本论文采用情景分析法对“西电东送”贵州火电项目可能造成的区域大气环境问题进行研究,设置了2004年现状排放和2010年规划排放两个情景,采用相同的气象场输入资料,利用空气质量模式(Atmos模式)分别对两种情景所造成的SO2污染、酸雨污染和PM10污染进行了模拟。对比2004年与2010年的模拟结果,得出“西电东送”贵州火电规划项目的环境可行性结论,并提出相应的预防措施,为国家相关部门的决策提供强有力的科学依据。模拟结果表明:(1)模拟区域内大气环境质量2010年较2004年有明显改善。主要体现在二氧化硫浓度超标面积减少;硫沉降超零界负荷面积减少;PM10浓度超标面积减少;城市空气质量改善四个方面。(2)模拟区域内二氧化硫和硫沉降污染主要是由非电厂源导致的。虽然2010年电厂的装机容量相对于2004年明显增加,但是由于2010年贵州省所有电厂均安装脱硫装置,电厂源对二氧化硫浓度和硫沉降的贡献相对于2004年已明显减少;而非电厂源的排放没有得到削减,使得二氧化硫的污染和区域酸化问题依然很严峻。因此,要解决该区域二氧化硫污染和酸化问题的关键在于控制非电厂源的二氧化硫排放,单纯从电厂源的削减入手很难解决如此严重的环境问题。(3) 2010年和2004年贵州省内火电厂造成的区域PM10污染浓度均没有超过国家二级标准,2010年相对于2004年超国家一级标准面积明显减少,这主要是二氧化硫减排(次生硫酸盐浓度降低)的结果。但是本文对PM10的模拟只考虑了电厂源的排放,同时PM10粒子的形成机制是非常复杂的,是多种源贡献的结果。因此,本次模拟只能说明电厂源贡献的大小,而该结果要远低于实际值。不过总体来说PM10的污染并不是该区域环境恶化的主要原因,并不会直接威胁到区域大气的环境质量。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study was combined with the 973 National emphasis fundamental research development plan‘The sedimentation mechanism, transportation trend, regulation control theory of acid rain in China’(2005CB422200).The Atmos model of air quality numerical simulation, which was developed by U.S.A. Iowa University under the support of RAINS-ASIA project, was used. The Atmos model was re-developed and named Atmos-China, which set the foundation for the 973 project further research. This was the one of innovations of the paper.High emission characteristic of thermal power plant could cause heavy regional atmospheric pollution. Guizhou province was the severely afflicted area of acid rain and sulfur dioxide pollution of our country, a large number of thermal power plans of the“west-east power transfer project”would be certain to cause more serious pollution. Thus, it was necessary to analyze the pollutants emission status of thermal power plans of this project, forecast its environmental impact, and put forward properly precautionary measures.The paper studied the regional atmospheric pollution base on scene analysis method, using 2004 current situation scene as a base and 2010 planning scene as a future condition, adopted the same meteorological data, simulated and forecasted the status of sulfur dioxide, acid rain and PM10 pollution in 2004 and 2010 with the Atmos model, respectively. Combining the simulation result of 2004 and 2010, the conclusion of the environmental feasible was drawn, and the corresponding precautionary measures were put forward, for GuiZhou thermal power plan of“west-east power transfer project”. It offered strong scientific basis for decisionmaker of national relevant departments.The simulating results were shown as follows:(1) The air quality of simulated area in 2010 would be obviously improved compared with that of 2004, for the installation of desulphurization equipments with power plants. It mainly reflected in four aspects, such as the area of sulfur dioxide concentration and PM10 concentration exceeded the standard reduced, the area of sulfur deposition exceeded the critical loads reduced, and the air quality of some cities in simulated area were improved(2) It could be known that the reasons of this regional sulfur deposition were main caused by non-power plants, The installed capacity of power plants in 2010 increased obviously than that of 2004, but because of all power plants installed desulphurization equipments, the contribution of power plants sources to sulfur deposition and sulfur dioxide pollution had decreased sharply. Meanwhile, the emission of non-power plants were not cut, so the problem of sulfur deposition and sulfur dioxide pollution in simulated area in 2010 was still seriously. Therefore, the key of solving these pollution problems was lying in controlling the non-power plants emission; it was difficult to solve the atmospheric environment pollution only by cutting power plants sources pollution.(3) The regional PM10 pollution which the power plant inside the province of Guizhou caused was not exceed the national second grade quality standards in 2010 and 2004. The area of the regional PM10 pollution exceed the national first grade quality standards in 2010 will obviously reduce than that of 2004, this was mainly ascribe to the sulfur dioxide reduced (secondary sulphate concentration reduced ) But the simulated result of PM10 only considered the emission from power plants sources, was lower than the real value. However, to a large extent,the PM10 was not main reason caused this regional environment deterioration, would not threatened the air quality of this area directly.更多还原