【作者】 梁威；

【导师】 刘凌；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 目前，区域水环境安全研究已成为生态安全研究领域的重点和热点。区域水环境状况对区域产业规划、环境规划、人民生活等具有重要的影响。因此，了解整个区域的水环境状况，识别影响区域水环境安全的主要因素，评估区域水环境破坏造成的经济损失，具有必要性和重要的现实意义。基于生态学、环境学、水文学、经济学与可持续发展等理论，本文有一定创新性地对区域水环境安全评价和水环境破坏经济损失评估进行综合研究，应用于海河流域的水环境情势评估，取得较好的成果。在区域水环境安全评价研究中，以DPSIR概念模型和层次结构模式构建区域水环境指标体系，利用指标函数法对指标进行规格化，最后采用基于离差最大化组合赋权法和改进型多层次多目标模糊优选模型对区域水环境现状进行评估。在区域水环境破坏经济损失估算研究中，建立水环境不安全指数-经济损失函数关系，利用分类计算法所得的结果对计量模型进行参数率定及模型验证，然后通过区域水环境安全评价求得各区域的水环境不安全指数，作为模型的输入因子，进而求得各区域的水环境破坏经济损失。本文最后对构建海河流域水环境安全保障体系提出一些意见和建议。对海河流域水环境安全现状评价表明：海河流域水环境状况十分严峻，二级区水环境安全指数得分由高到低依次为滦河及冀东沿海区、海河北系区、徒骇马颊河区、海河南系区。省级行政区水环境安全指数得分由高到低依次为内蒙古、辽宁、北京、山西、天津、山东、河北、河南。对海河流域水环境破坏经济损失估算显示：海河流域水环境破坏经济损失巨大。海河流域2000年水环境破坏经济损失为GDP的4.98％以上，损失值高达5794768.04万元。二级区经济损失由小到大排序为(占GDP的百分比)：滦河及冀东沿海区、海河北系区、徒骇马颊河区、海河南系区。省级行政区经济损失由大到小排序为(占GDP的百分比)：内蒙古、辽宁、北京、山西、天津、山东、河南、河北。与水环境评价结果排序一致。这些研究结果表明，海河流域的水环境安全恶化形势十分严重，扭转这种趋势刻不容缓。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, Water environment security research has become a hot point on the area of eco-environment security research. The regional water environment plays important roles on regional industry programming, environmental programming, people’s life etc. So it is necessary to know the state of entire regional water environment, to identify the main factors which influence regional water environment security, and to evaluate economic losses caused by water environment deterioration. That is the purpose of this article.Based on the theory of ecology, environment, hydrology, economics, and sustainable development, this article has a certain innovation in combining two methods: one is regional water environment security assessment. The other is estimating economic losses caused by regional water environment deterioration. And then these methods are well applied to Haihe Basin water environment evaluation. One of the main parts in the article is about research on regional water environment assessment. In this part, based on DPSIR conceptual model and hiberarchy system, a four-layer assessment index system of regional water environment security is set up, including many indicators, such as society, economy, environment and landscape ecology. Then, the index function method is selected to convert primal indexes into proper dimensionless indexes. At last, the Haihe Basin water environment security is evaluated, by the combination determining weights method based on maximizing deviations and improved multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization model. The other main part of this article is about research on estimation economic losses caused by regional water environment deterioration. In this part, function relationships between water environment insecurity index and economic losses are established firstly. The results got by classification computing method are used to calibrate parameters of computing model and validate computing model. Then regional water environment insecurity indexes as input data of computing model are got by assessing regional water environment security. Then the economic losses caused by regional water environment deterioration can be calculated by the model. The assessment results of Haihe Basin water environment security show that the situation of Haihe Basin water environment security is very serious. According to state of water environment security from good to poor, the order of the second class areas of Haihe Basin are Luanhe and Jidongyanhai area, Haihebeixi area, Tuhaimajiahe area, and Haihenanxi area. And the order of the province-level administrative areas of Haihe basin are Neimenggu, Liaoning, Beijing, Shanxi, Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan.The calculated results of economic losses caused by Haihe Basin water environment deterioration indicate that the losses are huge. In the year of 2000, the losses caused by Haihe Basin water environment deterioration are above 4．98% of GDP. The value of losses is about 58 billion. According to the economic losses (percent of GDP) from few to many, the order of the second class areas of Haihe Basin are Luanhe and Jidongyanhai area, Haihebeixi area, Tuhaimajiahe area, and Haihenanxi area. Similarly, the order of province-level administrative areas of Haihe Basin in regard to economic losses (percent of GDP) are Neimenggu, Liaoning, Beijing, Shanxi, Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan. The order of economic losses is consistent with the order of regional water environment security assessment from good to bad.These results show that the situation of Haihe basin water environment security is very serious. It has no time to delay retorting this trend.更多还原