【作者】 钱卫华；

【导师】 姚建刚；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 负荷预测是与电网调度运行、电力系统发展规划密切相关的一项重要的基础工作。在当前电力市场化趋势下,对负荷预测这项工作提出了更高更新的要求。因此,有必要建设新的负荷预测系统,以适应当前电力市场化的需要。这包括研究新的预测策略及选用新的开发平台进行设计开发。面向WEB的分布式应用开发乃大势所趋。而.NET技术是微软推出的一种WEB应用系统开发平台,结合分层架构思想,功能十分强大,是当前构建新型的面向WEB的企业应用系统,尤其是大型的企业应用系统的一种比较高效的开发技术。本文结合湖大华龙电气与信息技术有限公司的智能式负荷分析、预测与管理系统的设计与开发,介绍了如何利用.NET技术来实现一个企业应用系统,详细阐述了分布式应用体系、系统架构、总体设计、功能实现等内容,并讨论了数据访问策略等关键技术。负荷预测系统是一个专业性很强的应用软件,如何获得理想的预测效果是其最终的目的。除了良好的软件体系结构,构建科学合理的预测策略是非常重要的一环,它是能否成功预测的基础前提。本文在探讨了负荷预测的特点、要求与原理及预测的主要内容及步骤后,详细分析了影响负荷预测的相关因素、市场环境下负荷预测呈现的新特征以及负荷预测方法和策略,提出了基于虚拟预测、气象特征与气象趋势相结合的相似日选择、数据挖掘技术等思想的预测策略。系统构建了省地一体化预测平台,有机结合了负荷特性分析、负荷预测和考核管理三大功能,集成了包括超短期、短期、扩展短期及中长期在内的各类预测功能,充分考虑了气象因素和地区具体情况,体现了自组织、自学习、自适应的智能性。系统的试运行效果良好,解决了负荷预测中的一些实际问题,发挥了很好的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Load forecasting is the foundation of power system operation and planning. And under the current power market, more functions and better capability is expected of load forecasting system. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new system based on appropriate forecasting strategy and new platform to meet the need of the market.The soft development faced to the WEB distributional application is in prevalence. And as the new platform for the web application of Microsoft, .NET is very powerful combined with the theory of multilayer architecture and it is an efficient technology to establish a new enterprise application system facing web application, especially for a large one.Combined with the project of Intelligent Load Analysis, Forecasting and Management designed by Hunan HDWL Electric and Information Technology Co., LTD, this paper introduces the realization of an enterprise application system based on .NET. Distributional application developing, system architecture and major design are expounded. And data accessing solution is studied as well.The load forecasting system is a specialized application software. How to obtain the ideal effect is the final goal, except a good software structure, constructing a reasonable forecasting strategy is also very important, and it is one of the preconditions to a successful forecast. This paper researches the main content and the process of forecasting, then analyzes the correlation factors which interfere the forecasting. A novel forecasting strategy is proposed based on the thoughts of the hypothesized forecasting, similar day selection using weather characteristics and meteorological tendency and the technology of data mining and so on.The system constructs an integrative forecasting platform for a province and its sub area, combined with load analysis, load forecasting and management and it applies the most functions of load forecasting. The system is fairly intelligent in self-organization, self-learning and self-adaptation by extensively dealing with weather and other factors. And the application result verifies a successful system.更多还原