【作者】 马洁；

【导师】 高长春；

【作者基本信息】 东华大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代以来，许多国家金融体系都出现严重问题，金融风险与金融危机问题已经成为无论是发达国家，还是发展中国家都需要动用大量经济资源才能解决的难题。随着世界各国经济总体开放程度日益提高，金融风险形成原因之复杂，影响程度之深也与日俱增，对金融风险的深入探讨，不仅具有重要的理论意义，而且具有深刻的现实意义。作为对开放经济条件下金融风险的一个系统探讨，从信息经济学角度来看，风险源于信息的不完全和不对称，信息不完全引发外生性金融风险，而信息不对称引发内生性金融风险。而在经济领域内考虑风险的理论意义，则须上溯至分工与分工的演进，分工及私人信息的产生是经济领域内信息不对称的根源。随着现代经济的发展，做为其基本标志和主要基石，金融逐步在经济中占据了“操纵”地位，风险进一步向金融风险的演进。同时，金融自身的演进导致金融风险，随着经济金融化的发展和金融自发演进的加剧，金融风险日益在风险的世界里占据主要地位。开放性是现代经济的另一大特征，在开放经济条件下，资源可以得到更优的配置，而开放经济下的金融开放也使得金融效率得以提高；但是，在开放经济条件下，金融风险——无论外生性的，还是内生性的——都将显著增加。同时，在开放经济条件下，国际资本流动也表现出新的特征。金融风险具有显著的扩散性和传染性，其在金融主体之间的传递具有一些共性特征，这就是金融风险的传导机制：信息不对称程度的增加使金融市场上的逆向选择与道德风险增加，造成金融资产价格的波动。而金融资产的价格有一种逐步偏离均衡价格的自促成机制。价格的偏离，无论是过高还是过低，容易形成过于乐观或者过于悲观的预期，由于羊群效应及从众心理，形成突然性的、穿透起始点的回归过程，危机爆发。在开放经济条件下，金融危机又会通过贸易、资本流动以及预期等因素，向其他国家扩散。这一机制可以在上世纪日本金融危机当中得到验证。对金融风险传导机制的研究是防范和化解金融风险的主要理论基础，深入理解金融风险如何形成、如何传导才能对症下药，构建合理的金融防范控制体系，因而，对金融风险传导机制的研究是文章的主体，也是其主要创新点所在。我国处于经济转轨的特殊时期，这一过程中金融风险的形成和演进具有一些新的特征，面对着金融业的完全开放，对金融风险的防范更是我国经济工作的重中之重。对我国金融风险的防范，要从我国的具体情况出发，因地制宜，探索一条具有中国特色的金融安全道路。更多还原

【Abstract】 From 1980’s, serious problems occurred in financial systems of many countries. Financial risk and financial crisis have become a problem that cost a great amount of economic resource to deal with, and the situation exists in not only developing countries but also developed countries. With the gradually increasing of economic opening degree in worldwide, complexity of forming cause and influence of financial risk are enhancing. As a result, the study on financial risk is of significance not only on theoretic level but also on practical level.As a systemic analysis of financial risk on the condition of open economy, in the angle of information economics, risk roots from inadequacy and asymmetry of information. Inadequacy of information arises of exogenous risk, and asymmetry of information arises of endogenetic risk. Considering theoretic meanings of risk in economy field, division of labor and its evolvement are involved. Occurrence of division of labor and private information are the root of asymmetry of information in economic field. With the development of modern economy, as its symbol and foundation, finance occupies "control" position, and risk father evolves into financial risk. At the same time, finance evolving by itself result in financial risk also. With the development of economic financiation and enhancement of finance evolving by itself, financial risk occupies chief position in risk world increasingly.Opening is another character of modern economy. On the condition of open economy, resource can gain a better distribution, and financial opening can improve financial efficiency; However , on the condition of open economy, financial risk, whether exogenous risk or endogenetic risk, increases observably.Financial risk has evident diffusibility and infectivity. There is common feature in the way by which financial risk spreads in financial field, and that is financial risk conducting mechanism: asymmetry of information enhance adverse selection and moral hazard in financial market, which result in fluctuation of financial asset price. Price of financial assets has a self-inducing mechanism which make it depart equilibrium level. Price departure , whether overhigh or overlow, might lead to overoptimistic expectation or overpessimistic expectation. Due to flock effect and herd behavior, price regression occurs, which usually happens suddenly and penetrates start point. Consequently, crisis breaks out. On the condition of open economy, financial crisis spreads to other countries through international trade, capital flow and expectation. The mechanism can be illustrated by financial crisis in Japan in the end of 20 century. The study on financial risk conducting mechanism is the main basis of financial risk prevention. To know how financial risk to form, conduct is necessary to build reasonable financial prevention system. So, the study on financial risk conducting mechanism is the key part and main creativity of this paper.Our country is in a special term of economic shunt, so forming and evolvement of financial risk have some new features. Faced with complete opening of financial industry, financial risk prevention is of more importance in economic work of our country. To prevent financial risk in our country, we should stand on the objective situation of our country, explore a China-characteristic road.更多还原