【作者】 游广永；

【导师】 赵元杰；

【作者基本信息】 河北师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 全球变化科学对揭示和理解人类赖以生存的地球系统运转的机制、变化规律具有重要的意义。近几十年来,人类活动对环境的影响程度不断加强,温室效应、全球变暖、臭氧层空洞、土地利用/土地覆盖变化、水资源枯竭使我们意识到地球系统的承载力有限。同时,对全球气候变化的研究也成为焦点,对过去环境演变的认识能够更好的预测未来气候演化的方向。岱海地区是一个封闭的内陆盆地,其湖相沉积物的保存比较完好,能够很好的反映区域的气候变化。孢粉分析显示出该地区12000a以来的植被和气候演化与其它地区有很好对应。基于在中国北方地区建立的孢粉-气候转换函数可以将该地区的孢粉组合定量转化为气温和降水的数据。马尔科夫链模型对随机序列的分析有很好的解释意义,在天气现象和灾害预测方面有很好的应用,本文试图将此模型应用到岱海孢粉反映的气温和降水数据分析之中。计算结果显示气候状态变化存在60a、80a、180a、400a、900a等周期,和现代观测记录所反映的太阳活动周期和地震活动周期一致。说明在短时间尺度上,太阳活动和地内因素仍然是气候波动的主要驱动力之一。本文的创新之处在于:将马尔科夫链模型对周期的分析应用到气候波动的数据分析中,进一步证实了太阳辐射量变化仍是短时间尺度内气候波动的主要驱动力;近代人类活动是造成气候更大幅度的波动的主要原因之一。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global Change Science plays a significant role in studying and understanding the mechanism and evolution of Earth system on which human beings live. In recent decades, human activities have changed the Earth’s environment. The green house effect, global warming, hole of ozonosphere, changes of land use and land cover, drain of water resources have made us aware the limited potency that the environment could suffer before collapse. At the same time, researches are concentrated on the evolution of the global change, because knowing the past and mechanism of the climate can help us predicting the future.The Daihai region is an enclosed basin, its lacustrine sediments indicating the climate are well preserved. Pollen anlysis of this area in last 1200 years reveals the vegetation and climate varition in accordance with other area. Based on Pollen-climate transfer function established in northern China, the composition of pollen can be quantitatively transfered into numerical data of temperature and precipitation.Markov chain model, which is a mathematical way solving dynamic variation of random serial, can be applied to analyze the data which the pollen composition of Daihai region has revealed. The outcome of the calculation betray that the climate variation has periods of 60a、80a、180a、400a、900a, which in relation with activity of the sun and earthquake. So we draw the conclusion that the sun activity and interior earth factor are the main drives of climate change even in short time scale.The innovation of this article is that: using Markov chain model to anlyze the periodicity of climate change; finding the main drive of climate change and the enlarged climate viberation due to human activity.更多还原