【作者】 朱平；

【导师】 张敏莉； 贾仁甫；

【作者基本信息】 扬州大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 水是维持生态系统完整、人类生存和社会经济发展的基础性资源,然而随着近年来人口增长、生产扩大和城市化进程加快,水资源短缺和水环境恶化问题日益显现出来。我国是缺水国家,水资源问题已经成为制约我国社会经济和生态环境可持续发展的关键因素之一。因此,系统地开展区域水资源预警方法研究,具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文是江苏省水利科技重点项目“区域水资源预警方法研究与应用”的一个子专题。本文在参考国内外大量文献的基础上,结合水资源综合管理的实践,探讨了区域水资源预警的基本概念,分析了水资源预警的理论基础、逻辑过程、基本程序、预警准则等一系列基本理论问题,初步构建了区域水资源预警的理论体系;研究了区域干旱的评价与预警问题,通过分析影响区域干旱的不确定性因素,构建了区域干旱预警指标体系,引入模糊数学中的隶属度概念,建立了区域干旱预警模糊综合评价模型;研究了河流水质的预警问题,介绍了水质预测方法,提出了采用单因子评价和灰色聚类分析相结合的方法对河流水质实施预警,提高了预警的科学性;探讨了地下水超采的类型及预警方法;从宏观管理上,本文构建了区域水资源可持续利用预警指标体系,并采用层次分析法(AHP)将影响区域水资源可持续利用的诸多因素进行层次分析比较,确定各指标权重,运用BP网络对预警指标进行了预测,利用效用函数综合评价模型对区域水资源可持续利用程度进行评价和预警;针对前面的研究,本文还制定了相应的排警措施。论文最后以江苏盐城地区为例进行了实证分析,检验了方法的合理性可操作性。总的来说,本文提出了水资源预警管理研究方法,并在此基础上建立了区域水资源预警的初步框架,为合理开发利用水资源提供了重要依据,但文中也存在不足之处,需要作进一步研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is a scarce but essential resource to human life, social and economic development and eco-environment. With human population rapid growth and urbanization, the problems on lack of water resources and deterioration of water environment are standing out increasingly. China is a water-scarce country and will face more serious water scarcity with continued population growth and rapid economic development and urbanization. Water resources problem becomes one of key factors in our country’s sustainable development of social ecological environment. Therefore, it is very necessary, and also urgent, to carry out comprehensive studies on region water resources early warning. The studies have extremely important significance for theories and great value in practice.After reviewing a lot of literatures home and overseas on the water resources early warning and according to the practice of water resources integrated management, this paper discusses the basic concept of the early warning of region water resources and analyses a series of basic theoretical problems such as the theoretical base, the logical process, the basic procedure, the rule of early warning. On the basis above, it forms the theoretical system of water resources early warning elementarily. By analyzing the uncertain factors of drought, this article discusses the evaluation and early warning problem of the regional drought and puts forward the forecasting system and builds up the early warning model of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation with the method of subjection degree in fuzzy mathematics. The early warning of water quality and the method of water-quality prediction are also introduced in the paper. In order to enhance the accuracy, single index assessment method and gray clustering method are adopted to give water-quality early warning. In this paper, the early warning of groundwater’s excessive exploitation is discussed too. On the macroscopically management of water resources, the article builds up the forecasting index system of the sustainable utilization of region water resources. The weight of indexes is determined by applying analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the prediction of the indexes is calculated by BP neural network. The sustainable utilization of water resources is evaluated by model of comprehensive evaluation with utility function. Based on the foregoing research, this paper established corresponding measure of obviating the danger. Finally, the paper makes a demonstration taking Yancheng for example. The validating results indicate that the research method in this dissertation is reasonable and exercisable.Generally, a primary framework of region water resources early warning is founded and it is expected to further the future theoretical research and practical application. So it can provide important basis for the exploiture of water resources reasonably and scientifically. But there still exist some problems which are worth to be studied further.更多还原