【作者】 杨晋；

【导师】 刘清；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的持续快速增长，我国的高速公路发展迅速。自1988年我国第一条高速公路通车至今的近20年里，通车里程逐年快速递增，至2006年末，已经达到45400公里，居世界第二。高速公路的迅速发展，有效地改善了我国公路交通结构与运输效率，促进国民经济的增长，极大地方便了人民生活，创造了可观的社会经济价值。但与此同时，我国高速公路交通事故频繁发生，造成的人员伤亡和财产损失逐年递增。据统计，2002年，我国高速公路事故死亡人数为3927人，占全国道路事故死亡人数的3.59％。到了2005年，我国高速公路事故死亡人数已经攀升到6407人，占全国道路事故总死亡人数的5.9％，平均每万公里死亡1562人，是普通公路平均每万公里死亡人数的4倍。根据“十一五”规划“实现对交通行为的监控、预警、引导和控制，抑制或减少交通事故隐患”的精神，建立高速公路预警管理系统，对我国高速公路实施预警管理已是当务之急。本文以日益严峻的我国高速公路安全形势为切入点，分析了我国高速公路安全管理现状，阐述了在我国建立高速公路预警管理系统的意义，提出了我国高速公路预警管理的若干关键问题，并研究了解决这些关键问题的高速公路预警管理三大关键技术(信息协同技术、事故成因数理量化模型和事故“黑点”控制技术)。高速公路预警信息协同技术的理论基础是信息论和协同论。我国高速公路交通信息具有自治性、分散性和异构性的特点。根据这些特点和现有的信息集成模式，本文研究如何运用了信息协同技术，通过对异构信息的集成，在我国现有三大机电系统的基础上建立信息共享平台，实现路段间和高速公路管理部门间的交通信息的共享。高速公路事故成因的分析对预测事故的发生十分重要。本文运用系统动力学方法建立了高速公路事故成因机理模型，进行了高速公路交通系统因果关系分析和该系统模型的构造流图设计，揭示了高速公路事故成因间的内在联系和相互作用机理。对“黑点”的鉴别，是高速预警管理中“黑点”控制的基础。文章对现有的“黑点”鉴别方法进行逐一介绍，分析了各种方法的优缺点和适用范围，并在此基础上，提出了适合我国的“黑点”鉴别方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 With socio-economy fast growing, freeway in our country has developed rapidly. The first freeway in our country was open in 1988.From it to now, freeway in our country developed rapidly. In this nearly 20 years, freeway mileage has increased progressively year by year. In the end of 2006, freeway mileage already reached 45,400 kilometers, which is the second in the world. Rapid development of the freeway, has improved our country highway traffic structure and the transportation efficiency effectively, has promoted the national economy growth, enormously has facilitated the lives of the people, has created the considerable social economy value. At the same time, traffic accidents in China’s freeway have occurred frequently. Casualty and property damage that caused by freeway traffic accidents has increased year by year. According to statistics, in 2002, freeway accident death number in China is 3927, it is 3.59% of total number of road accident death. And in 2005, freeway accident death number in China had risen to 6407, it is 5.9% of total number of road accident death, with an average 1562 people died per 10,000 km, which was four times of accident death Common highway. According to the "to achieve the right of traffic control, early warning, guidance and control, contain or reduce hidden dangers of traffic accidents "of "11th Five-Year" plan, the establishment of early freeway warning system and implement of early warning management in China’s freeway is the most urgent task.Based on the increasingly serious safety situation in China freeway, the highway safety management status is analyzed , significance of establishing early warning freeway system in china is expounded .Several key technical problems need to settled with establishment of freeway warning system in china. Three key technologies (information synergies technology, mathematical model of accident cause and accident "black spots" control technology)is studied that can resolve these critical issues.The information theory and the synergy theory is the base of information synergy technology. Traffic information of expressway in china have three characteristics, autonomy, distribution and heterogeneity. Based on these characteristics and existing information integration model, to establish information sharing platform through the integration of heterogeneous information, on the basis of our three existing electromechanical system, how to make use of information technology synergies is studied in the article. It aims to implement information sharing in section of freeway and management departments.Freeway cause analysis is very important to predict the occurrence of accidents. In this paper, system dynamics method is used to establish the cause mechanism of freeway accidents. Causation of the freeway transportation system is analyzed and the model of tectonic flow diagram is designed. The inherent connection and interaction mechanism of freeway accident cause is revealed.How to discern the "black spots" is the foundation of the control "black spots" in freeway warning Management. The paper introduces some existing identification methods of "black spots", and analyzes the advantage, disadvantage and the scope of application of each methods. And on this basis, identification method of "black spots" which is suitable for China is point out.更多还原