【作者】 石国新；

【导师】 吴波；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 机械设计及理论， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 生产调度是制造系统生产管理的核心，生产管理任务顺利实施与完成，最终要靠合理的生产调度来保证。在实际的生产调度实施过程中，总是会出现一些无法预料的不确定因素，使得正常的生产调度受到影响，从而产生一些意想不到的后果，因此，对生产调度中的不确定因素进行分析是极其必要的。本文具体内容如下：(1)从生产调度的定义出发，系统性的分析了生产调度目前的研究现状和发展趋势。在此基础上，对在不确定条件下生产调度模型的研究现状做了详细的说明。同时，介绍了可靠性在许多领域的研究现状及其它的定义，为论文研究奠定了理论基础。(2)深入地分析了机械零部件制造企业在生产调度过程中的各种不确定因素，详细地研究了机械制造业的生产类型及其每种生产类型的调度特征。在研究这些不确定因素对生产调度的影响的同时，采用概率统计理论、模糊数学方法、可靠性理论、设备运行维修理论、人机工程等方法，分别建立了人员、制造设备、生产任务、时间以及生产任务外包等不确定因素的定量评价模型，将这些随机因素对生产调度影响的程度数量化。(3)针对制造设备是典型的马尔科夫过程的特点，得出了在调度过程中处于工作状态和停运状态下的瞬时有效度和稳态有效度，建立了生产调度过程中的维修性模型。对于人员不确定因素，分析了人员失误的原因和分类。(4)针对这些不确定因素，结合实际的生产调度系统，分析了系统在排产和调度的过程中，是如何将这些不确定因素加以引入和处理的，进行了实际的分析与讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shop scheduling is the core of production management in the manufacture system, implement and complement successfully of production management tasks are ensured depending on logical scheduling. During the actual scheduling implement, some unexpected uncertainty factors always occur, which make normal scheduling affected, so it will lead to some unexpected results. Therefore, it’s necessary to analyze uncertainty factors in the scheduling. Concrete contents of paper are summarized as follows:(1) Beginning from the definition of scheduling, analyze systemically research actual actuality and development trendy of scheduling. On the basis of it, narrate detailed research actuality of scheduling under the uncertainty condition. Meanwhile, introduce reliability definition and research actuality in many fields.(2) For the mechanical parts manufacture enterprises, analyze deeply all kinds of uncertainty factors during scheduling, research detailed production type of mechanical manufacture and scheduling characteristic of every type. While researching these uncertainty factors affect scheduling, adopt probability statistic theory, fuzzy math method, reliability theory, equipment maintenance theory and human-mechanics engineering, establish separately human, manufacture equipment, production tasks, time and out-assistant quantitative evaluation model, so quantify the influence degree that the stochastic factors acting on production scheduling.(3) Aiming at the characteristic that manufacture equipment is typical of MaErKeFu course, get instantaneous availability degree and steady availability degree under work condition and stop condition on the course of scheduling, establish maintenance model of scheduling course. For the human uncertainty factor, analyze the reason and sort of human misplay.(4) Aiming at the uncertainty factors, integrate actual scheduling system, analyze that how to input and manage these uncertainty factors during system’s arranging plan and scheduling, do actual analysis and discussion.更多还原