【作者】 索俊锋；

【导师】 赵军； 苗天宝；

【作者基本信息】 西北师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用/覆盖变化是全球气候变化的主要原因和响应,也是与可持续发展密切相关的课题。土地利用/覆盖变化模拟是预测未来土地利用/覆盖变化的重要方法。选择小尺度空间范围的典型区域作为研究对象,是深入认识和分析土地利用时空变化规律及其驱动机制的有效途径,可以使中国的土地利用/覆盖变化研究向更深、更广的方向发展。建立在明确空间定位基础上综合集成的动态模型,是理解和认识区域土地利用/土地覆盖变化的某些关键过程的重要手段,是对未来的土地利用变化格局和影响进行研究评价的重要工具。在众多土地利用变化模型中,CLUE-S模型比较适用于小尺度空间范围的区域土地利用变化研究。目前,国内对区域土地利用变化的研究多是以县级尺度为最小单位,而对乡镇一级的土地利用变化研究则很少涉及。本研究选择地处长江三角洲腹地、经济发展很快的杭州市千岛湖镇为研究对象,以1993和2004年的土地利用现状数据和统计数据为数据源,运用GIS技术、数理统计分析等方法,研究了该地区土地利用变化的过程、驱动机制。运用CLUE-S模型模拟、预测了2004年和2015年不同情景下的土地利用变化,并运用景观格局分析方法对千岛湖镇过去11年间的土地利用变化的生态效应进行了分析。可为编制乡镇一级土地利用规划和生态环境建设提供有效决策支持,具有一定的理论和现实意义。研究表明:(1)在1993～2004年的11年间,千岛湖镇土地利用发生了较大的变化。从数量上来看,变化幅度大小依次是城镇及工矿用地＞林地＞未利用土地＞园地＞耕地＞交通运输用地＞其他未利用地＞其他农用地＞水利设施用地＞牧草地;从土地利用综合指数来看,该区域的开发程度还处于一个合理开发阶段,但以每年4.533%的速率发展,其发展速度还是较快的;从土地利用变化构成指数来看,研究区牧草地、城镇及工矿用地、交通运输用地和其它农用地处于稳定增加的状态,未利用土地、耕地和林地处于稳定减少状态。(2)研究区土地利用变化既受自然因素的影响,又受社会经济和政策因素的影响,在所选择的驱动因子中,距国道的距离是最重要的自然驱动因子,人口密度是最重要的社会经济因子。(3)通过对驱动因子Logistic分析,选择对研究区土地利用变化贡献较大的影响因子导入CLUE-S模型进行模拟,用2004年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行检验。结果显示在基本单元(90m*90m)的水平上的模拟的正确率为84.71%,Kappa指数值为0.825,这证明CLUE-S模型可以较为成功地模拟研究区域土地利用时空动态变化。基于此,设计两个情景对2015年的土地利用变化进行模拟,与2004年相比较,明显的变化是城镇工矿用地的扩张和林地的减少,并且城镇工矿用地的扩张多是在原有城镇及工矿用地的基础上向四周扩展,侵占的多是周边的耕地、林地、未利用地。情景一比情景二有更多的栅格单元发生了转化,特别是属性为耕地和林地的栅格较多转化成城镇工矿用地。(4)在类型尺度水平上,林地是最主要的景观类型,是千岛湖镇景观的基质,1993年占78.31%,2004年占75.23%,城镇工矿用地比例由1993年的3.22%增加到2004年的7.4%,斑块个数总体上呈增加的趋势。在景观尺度水平上,千岛湖镇在合理的生态功能规划下,各种景观类型分布趋于聚集,形成一定的规模;单类景观占据主导的趋势在减弱将导致生态系统的稳固,同时也应看到,随着林地的不断减少,城镇化水平的不断提高,生态环境将会受到一定的影响。具体表现在:生境质量下降;景观内部均质化发展,降低了景观抗干扰能力;边缘效应降低;生态系统组分单一化。更多还原

【Abstract】 LUCC (Land Use and Land Cover Change) is the main reason and response of the globe climate change, and also has a close relation with the sustainable development. LUCC model is the important method to predict future land use change. Selecting typical region of small scale spatial range as a study object is an effective path to deeply recognize and analyze the spatial change and driving mechanism about land use. It can make the research about LUCC develop more deeply and widely in china. The synthesized-integrated dynamic model which built on the clear space orientation foundation is the essential means to understand and know the region land use/land cover change, and is the crucial tool to study and appraise the land use change’s pattern and influence in the future. It shows that the CLUE-S Model is suitable which to research the land use change of small scale and spatial region contrast with the other models.Nowadays, the domestic researches on the region land use change always focus on the county scale, however the villages and towns scale are little involved. Employing the technology of GIS and the method of statistic analysis, the thesis studies the process and driving factors of land use change which utilizes statistic data from 1993 to 2004 of Qiandao Lake in Hangzhou city which lies in the center of the Yangtze River Delta. Based on CLUE-S model, the paper simulates and forecasts land use change in 2004 and in 2015 in the different conditions, and analyses the ecological effects during past 11 years by using the theory of landscape ecology. The study can provide effective support for land use plan and ecological environment construction in the village and town scale, therefore the paper has certain theoretical and realistic meaning.The main conclusions are the followings:(1) Over the past 11 years from 1993 to 2004, dramatic change has taken place on land use in Qiandao Lake town. In quantitative terms, the absolute change extent obeyed the following sequence: land for urban areas and mining(533.49ha)>forest land (-415.025ha) >idle land (-189.057ha) >garden land(137.941ha)>cultivated land (-131.545ha) > land for traffic (53.319)>other idle land(-39.741ha) >other agricultural land(28.33ha) > land for water facilities(20.912ha)>grassland(1.375ha); In land use synthetic index terms, the exploitation development degree in this region is also at a reasonable phase, but the development speed is quicker at an average rate of 4.533% each year; In land use change constitution index terms, grassland, land for urban areas and mining, and also land for traffic and other agriculture land are at a stably increasing condition, however, idle land, cultivated land and forest land are at the stably reducing condition.(2) Land use change in Qiandao Lake town not only has been influenced by the natural factor, but also influenced by the social economy and the policy factors. In the selected driving factors, the distance to the federal highway is the most important natural driving factor, and the population density is the most important social economy factor.(3) According the analysis of the logistic regress on driving factors, the more contributive driving factors to the analysis of land use change would be chosen into the simulation of the CLUE-S model and its result would be tested by land use map of 2004. The result indicates that CLUE-S model is capable of simulating correctly 84.71% and Kappa index 0.825 at the basic grid level (90m*90m). The land use temporal and spatial change simulation of the CLUE-S model in this region has achieved its goal. Based on that, the author designed two scenes to carry on the simulation to land use change of Year 2015. Comparing two status land use maps of Year 2015 and 2004, the obvious change is the expansion of land for urban areas and mining and the reduction of forest land, meanwhile, the expansion of land for urban areas and mining is usually based on the original land for urban areas and mining, which invaded around some land, such as forest land, cultivated land, idle land etc. Comparing with the two scenes, the transformation quantities of the cell unit of the first scene are more than that of the second, especially those cell units are forest land and cultivated land have been more transformed into land for urban areas and mining.(4) In the scale of class type, forest land was the most essential landscape type, the matrix in the region was forest land. This land use type occupied 78.31% in 1993 and 75.23% in 2004. The scale of land of traffic increased from 3.22% in 1993 to 7.4% in 2004. In the all, the number of patches about land of traffic and garden land increased and showed the trend of larger, while the number of patches about cultivated and idle land reduced; In the scale of landscape, each kind of landscape type distribution of Qiandao Lake town tends to gathering and forms the certain scale; The tendency of the single kind of landscape occupy leading is weakening, which will cause the stability of the ecosystem. Meanwhile, we should also watch that with the unceasing reduction of forest land and the enhancement of the cities level, the ecological environment will be subjected to the certain influence. It shows: the ecological environment drops in quality; the development of the landscape interior is well-distributed, which reduces the resist-disturbing ability of the landscape; the edge effect reduces; ecosystem component is simplifying.更多还原