【作者】 申希兵；

【导师】 刁承泰；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 自然地理学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 粮食问题是一个全球性的问题。作为第一人口大国的中国来说，它更是一个事关国家安危、经济进退、民生祸福以及社会稳定的大问题，也是我国政府和理论工作者高度关注和重视的一大课题。江津市是重庆市的一个农业大市，农业尤其是种植业在该市的社会发展中具有举足轻重的作用，以前该市的粮食生产除了能满足该市的基本需求外，有一定的粮食剩余，一部分的粮食外调到其它地方。目前随着西部大开发战略的实施和农业内部结构调整等原因，该市的耕地数量不断减少，目前该市的粮食生产仅仅能满足该市自身的粮食需求。未来随着耕地数量的不断减少和人口数量的增长，该市的粮食安全形式不容乐观。新形势下，对江津市粮食安全问题系统研究的思路为：在全面理解区域粮食安全内涵的基础上，分析江津市粮食供需的趋势及走向，并对其粮食安全状况进行实证分析，阐述影响全市粮食安全的因素，对该市未来2010年和2020年的粮食安全状况进行预测，提出确保江津市粮食安全的对策建议。通过对江津市粮食安全状况的实证研究，结果表明：1、粮食安全是一个不断丰富、充实和深化的概念，对它的认识经历了由现象到本质、由局部到全面、由数量到质量的提高和深化过程。在衡量一个地区的粮食安全状况时，主要应考虑供给层面与需求层面的因素。2、江津市粮食供需的现状是：耕地数量不断减少，粮食总产量虽然近两年来略有回升，但总的趋势是不断下降，而该市的人口在不断的增加，2005年该市的粮食自给率为94％左右，所以现在该市目前的粮食安全仅仅是达到基本满足的水平，今后的一段时间该市粮食安全的形势不容乐观。3、如果耕地数量按目前的减少速度发展下去，即使是乐观的预测，到2010年粮食自给率在85％左右，基本能满足绝大部分人的粮食需求；到2020年粮食缺口高达20万t以上，粮食自给率也仅仅65％左右，而通过折中和保守的预测，该市粮食自给率则更低，粮食缺口也更大，所以未来该市粮食安全形势严峻。正文包括八个部分：第一部分是介绍论文的写作意义、研究的思路和方法；第二部分是在介绍、理解世界粮农组织(FAO)关于“粮食安全”定义的基础上，结合江津市粮食供求格局的新变化和实行市场经济、加入WTO的新形势，阐明我国粮食安全内涵的基本点；第三部分是介绍江津市的社会经济发展状况和影响粮食安全的的自然资源状况(气候资源状况、水资源状况和耕地资源状况)；第四部分分别从该市的粮经比状况、粮食需求状况、粮食总产量变化趋势、粮食单产状况和人均粮食占有量等分析该市粮食安全现状，分析该市粮食供需发展态势；第五部分是分析影响该市粮食安全的主要因素；第六部分是根据播面单产值、耕地保有量、复种指数、人均用粮等预测江津市2010年和2020年的粮食安全态势；第七部分是提出确保该市粮食安全的措施；第八部分是结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food problem is a global issue. As a country with the maximum population in the world, the issue is closely connected with the safety of country, the flourishing of economy, and the stabilization of society. It thus has been attracting the directed attention of our government and theoretical researchers constantly.The Jiangjin city is a Chongqing’s big agricultural city, the agricultural industry, especially crop production has the pivotal function in this city’s social development. Before, this city’s grain production not only can satisfy this city’s basic demand, it also has certain grain surplus, part of the grain transfers to other places. At present, along with the strategy of development of western region, this city’s farming quantity unceasingly reduces, together with the agriculture internal structure adjustment, at present this city’s grain production merely can achieve the basic satisfying level. Future along with the farming quantity unceasing reduction and the population growth, this city’s food security will be unoptimistic.Under the new situation, the displine of food security system research in Jiangjin city is: based on the comprehensive understanding of regional food security connotation, analyze the trend of Jiangjin city’s grain supply and demand, and carry on the real diagnosis analysis to its food security condition, point out the factors affecting the whole city’s food security, predict the grain security condition from 2010 to 2020 in this city, propose suggestions and methods to ensure the grain security of JiangjinThrough the real diagnosis research of the Jiangjin city’s food security condition, the results indicate the following:1. Food security is an evolutive and deepening conception. The comprehension of the concept came through a process from phenomenon to essence, from partial to comprehensive, from quantity to quality and then formed an interactional connotation. On measuring the grain security condition of a region, our attention should be focused mainly on the factors of demand and supply.2. The current condition of the grain demand and supply in Jiangjin shows that the land for grain production is reducing year by year, the outcomes of average farmland increase gradually, the total production of grain maintains balance. Grain demand increases year by year because of taped population growth. Because of the rapid decline of grain land, the supply can only satisfy middle-leveled demand for a period. The situation of Jiangjin’s food security is very flinty.3. If the farmland quantity declines at the present reducing speed, to 2010 the degree of grain self-sufficiency is 85 percent, it can only gratify the major’s grain need; to 2020 the degree of grain self-sufficiency is only 65 percent, the food security situation is stern.The main body of this thesis contains eight parts: chapter one introduces the paper’s writing significance, the research mentality and method. Chapter two analyzes the Food and Agriculture Organization’s definition and connotative meaning of "grain safety"; clarifies the basic point of grain safety in our country, through the analysis of grain supply-demand condition in JiangJin and the new climate after forging WTO. The trends of land structure change and grain safety since 1996, finds out the potential hazard of grain safety in this city. Chapter three Introduces the Jiangjin city’s social economy development condition and the influence food security natural resource condition (climate resources condition, water resources condition and cultivated land resources condition); Chapter four analyzes the current condition and level of grain safety in Jiangjin from the aspects of food supply-demand condition, food self-support percentage and grain reserves, so as to reach a good conclusion of grain safety condition. Chapter five makes the primary factor of influence of food security. Chapter six predicts the grain safety posture of Jiangjin city from broadcasts per unit area yield value, the cultivated land inventory, the duplicate kind of index, average grain per person in 2010and2020. Chapter seven makes an approach to the measures and strategies of ensuring grain safety. Chapter eight is the conclusion.更多还原