【作者】 李长友；

【导师】 陆承平；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 预防兽医， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 近几年，全球高致病性禽流感疫情严重。2003年底至2006年10月，已经先后有67个国家和地区发生家禽和候鸟疫情。禽流感的发生和蔓延，给养禽业发展和公共卫生安全带来了严重威胁。及时、快速发现并控制疫情，给重大动物疫病监测预警和应急反应工作提出了更高的要求。地理信息系统(GIS)和全球定位系统(GPS)技术的快速发展，以及空间数据直观表现形式和强大分析功能可为高致病性禽流感疫情监测预警和应急处置工作提供良好的信息支持。基于这一背景，本文较为系统地开展了三方面研究工作：1．提出GIS／GPS技术在禽流感防控工作中的适用领域根据禽流感病毒病原学及生态学特征，参照世界动物卫生组织(OIE)风险评估框架，结合全球疫情形势及我国高致病性禽流感防控现状，基于动物传染病发生、扩散和流行过程中三个基本环节和两个基本因素，绘制了高致病性禽流感疫情发生、扩散情景树，建立了我国高致病性禽流感监测预警指标体系，系统分析了GIS和GPS技术在我国禽流感监测预警、风险防范和应急处置工作中的适用领域：建立和完善禽流感监测预警指标体系的时空分布数据库，实现特定时空范围内对禽流感发生风险指标的快速查询、空间分析和可视化功能，为禽流感风险防范工作提供可靠的信息支持；建立基于GIS的兽医资源信息数据库，实现基于GIS系统的兽医资源信息有效管理；以现行高致病性禽流感防治法律法规和技术规范为指导，开发基于GIS／GPS系统的禽流感应急指挥信息系统，为防疫决策和一线应急行动提供强有力的信息和技术支持。2．建立基于GIS／GPS技术的禽流感应急指挥信息系统基于我国现有的禽流感业务数据(2004-2006年度禽流感疫情数据)和GIS基础地理信息数据(1：250000的全国地图)，结合国家兽医行政管理部门在防控高致病性禽流感等重大动物疫病中对GIS和GPS技术的需求情况，应用ESRI ArcGIS9.0、MapObjects 2.2、GPS手持定位仪、Delphi 6等开发工具，设计开发了我国C／S(Client／Server)结构的基础地理信息与业务信息有效组合的全国高致病性禽流感防控决策分析支持系统。实现了高致病性禽流感疫点的准确定位，疫点、疫区、受威胁区地理信息的查询和直接显示，疫情应急处置过程进展信息的查询，以及基于GIS的禽流感疫情特定时、空、防控措施指标的三维组合统计分析功能，可为疫情应急处置、风险分析和监测预警工作提供了良好的可视化信息支持，基本可以满足国家兽医行政管理部门禽流感防控决策的实际需要。3．应用GIS／GPS技术评估禽流感发生格局的风险基于GIS和GPS空间数据处理技术，综合OIE风险评估的理论和方法探讨了我国禽流感发生的风险格局：第一，由于贯彻全面免疫政策，我国禽流感疫情发生强度已经有所减小，但病毒变异和疫情扩散风险依然存在；第二，格局分析表明，我国禽流感疫情已经形成了以西南-华南流域湿地、长江流域湿地、西藏流域湿地、新疆流域湿地、甘蒙流域湿地和黑龙江流域湿地等为中心的多点位扩散态势；第三，区域尺度疫点格局分析表明，我国云南、辽宁、新疆、内蒙、广西和西藏禽流感疫情发生的空间相关性显著，为聚集型分布，表明局部出现了扩散流行，这种特征使我国禽流感疫情在一定时间段内的复发成为可能；第四，我国以散养和小规模养殖模式为主体的养殖结构，使禽流感的发生和暴露风险加大。在候鸟迁徙区域的西南流域湿地、西藏流域湿地、新疆流域湿地、甘蒙流域湿地、长江流域湿地以及黑龙江流域湿地，候鸟迁徙、带毒扩散的廊道作用将逐渐显现；第五，运用禽流感发生风险致灾因子多度和相对疫情灾害发生风险强度分析方法，在全国尺度上得出了我国禽流感发生的风险强度指数，此外，本研究还探讨了GIS和GPS技术在我国禽流感防治工作中的应用局限性，如基础地理数据的精度、禽流感流行病学数据的系统性等需要进一步完善。提出综合利用多学科技术和方法，积极开展对禽流感发生的认知，包括开展动物防疫条件与疫情发生的关系、候鸟带毒传播机理、禽流感发生生态动力学机理、禽流感发生时-空过程模拟研究等，对理解、认识和科学防控高致病性禽流感疫情发生和扩散具有积极意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The situation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in the world becoms moreserious in recent years. During the last 3 years, HPAI outbreaks among domestic poultry andmigratory birds occurred in 67 countries and regions. The outbreaks and the spread of HPAIposed a serious threat to poultry industry and public health. It was essential to find outtimely and eradicate the HPAI outbreaks promptly for the prevention and control of HPAI. Sosurveillance and early warning and emergent response were urgently required. With spatialdata direct representation and strong analysis function, GIS&GP could provide informationsupport in HPAI surveillance and early warning and emergent response. On such specialbackground, researches were conducted on the following three aspects systematically:1. Studies on Applicable Fields for GIS&GPS Technology on HPAI Prevention andControl. Based on the characteristics of HPAI virology and ecology, referenced to the riskanalysis framework of OIE, combined the global disease situation and the actual condition ofthe prevention and control in China, the indicators system of surveillance and early warningsystem for HPAI prevention and control in China was established. It deals with the threebasic links and two basic factors of animal epidemic incidence, spread and circulation,scenario trees of HPAI occurrences and spread. Applicable fields of GIS&GPS technology insurveillance and early warning, risk prevention and emergent response for HPAI preventionand control in China were systematically analyzed, including building up temporal andspatial distribution pattem database in surveillance and early warning system, veterinaryresources information database, and emergency instructing information system, etc.2. Establishment of the Emergency Instructing Information System based onGIS/GPS technology for the HPAI Prevention and Control. Based on the available HPAIdata in China (data of HPAI occurrence information from 2004 to 2006) and GIS basicgeography information data (China map, 1:250,000), combined the requirements ofGIS&GPS technology for HPAI prevention and control, the C/S ( Client/Server ) structuredpolicy analysis supporting system for HPAI prevention and control in China was designedand developed by using the tools of ESRI ArcGIS9.0, Map Objects2.2, portable GPSorientator, Delphi 6. With the application of the system, the following four functions wererealized: accurate orientation of the infected points of HPAI; geographical inquiry and directvisual showing the geographical information of infected points, infected areas and threatenedareas; and statistic analysis based on integrated three dimensions of GIS special temporal,spatial and prevention and control indicators. Suitable visual information supporting forHPAI emergent response, risk analysis and surveillance and early warning were provided.The practical needs of Chinese veterinary administration management sectors for HPAI prevention and control were met.3. Evaluation of the risk distribution patterns of HPAI occurrence in China basedon application of GIS&GPS technology. Based on GIS&GPS spatial data processingtechnology integrated with the theory and methods of risk analysis, risk distribution patternsof HPAI occurrence in China were explored. (1) The HPAI occurrences were declined alongwith the compulsory vaccination policy, but the risk of the virus mutation and disease spreadstill remain significanlyt; (2) Patterns analysis demonstrated that multi-points spread treadscentered in Southeast wetlands, Yangtze River wetlands, Tibet wetlands, Ganmeng wetlandsand Amur River wetlands; (3) Regional pattern analysis showed that the disease werecluster-distributed in Yunnan, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and Tibet. Thespatial significant association within these given regions made the AI re-occur possible in thefuture; (4) Risk of HPAI occurrence in China would be loomed significantly along withdominated small scaled feeding patterns in the future. The corridors role of AI range inmigratory birds migration routes in Southeast wetlands, Yangtze River wetlands, Tibetwetlands, Ganmeng wetlands and Amur River wetlands would be emerged gradually; (5)Combining with AI risk factors, national scaled risk richness and risk intensity were givenand derived.In addition, the limitations of GIS&GPS technology application for HPAI preventionand control was explored, for example, the accuracy of the basic geographical data, and thesystematic epidemiological data needed to improve. The following proposals were raised:utilization of multi-subjects technology and methods to deepen the knowledge of rules ofHPAI occurrence, including researches on the relationship between animal health conditionsand HPAI occurrence, the mechanism of vector and spread in migratory birds, and thedynamic mechanism of HPAI occurrence. It would be of great significance on theunderstanding, knowledge and scientific prevention and control of HPAI occurrence andcirculation.更多还原