【作者】 吴巧梅；

【导师】 李自珍；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 应用数学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 水是维持生态系统完整、人类生存和社会经济发展的基础性资源，然而随着近年来人口增长、生产扩大和城市化进程加快，全球很多地区都面临着不同程度的水问题。长期以来北京市一直是中国甚至是世界上水资源最为严重短缺的超大城市之一，人均占有水资源量仅为全国人均占有量的1／6，是世界人均占有量的1／25。对北京市水资源承载力系统地进行研究，具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。水资源承载力是区域(地区)水资源在一定的技术经济条件下，在满足生态用水的前提下，可以支撑的最大的、协调发展的社会经济规模。本文首先给出水资源承载力的概念、特性及影响因素，并综合分析目前国内外研究水资源承载力的几种常用方法的优缺点，指出多目标分析法是处理社会一经济一资源一环境系统这类复杂的多属性多目标群决策问题的比较合适的方法，也是当今水资源管理的一个走向。在收集、整理大量北京市水资源相关资料基础上得出：北京市多年可利用水量，在保证率为50％、75％、95％时，分别为46.84、39.66、32.92亿m~3，可年均用水总量为38.8亿m~3，水资源供需矛盾十分尖锐。为此建立水资源多目标分析模型，将城市水资源承载力这个大系统划分为以下5个子系统，确定5个优化目标：GDP(国内生产总值，反映经济的发展)，COD(化学需氧量，反映污染状况)，Food(粮食产量，反映农业生产和社会稳定)，TWP(城市就业人口数，反映经济与社会发展的综合指标)和WE(生态环境需水量，反映生活环境质量)，此5个目标可充分反映水资源对经济、社会、人口等的承载能力。由于影响各目标的主要因素是相通的，且这些目标之间又存在相互依存、相互制约的关系，因此不可能追求单个目标的优化，只能追求整体的最优。计算出：50％水平年整体满意度达到0.725，其中满意度最高的为国内生产总值，最低的为生态环境需水量。最终优化结果，国内生产总值(GDP)为4626.95亿元，城市COD排放量为16.67万t，城市辖区粮食产量为242万t，城市就业人口为813.22万人，生态环境用水量为12.02亿t。最后，本文从风险管理的角度对北京市水资源短缺的风险进行了探讨。通过对水资源风险内涵的分析，建立风险度、可靠度、持续稳定性指数、恢复性测度、整体损失性测度几个指标，来定量分析北京市的水资源短缺：北京市多年平均风险指数r为0.75，系统面临较大的风险；多年的持续稳定性指数ω为0，这表明在水资源安全的前提下，下一年系统仍处于安全的概率几乎没有，这充分说明了北京市严重缺水的危害性；而多年恢复性测度β为0.125，意味着有时系统处于不安全的状态较长，要恢复到安全状态时困难较大；整体损失性测度μ′为0.036，这说明该地区由于缺水造成的损失率为3.6％，水资源短缺损失严重，并由此提出实施水资源持续发展的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is the basic resource which can keep the integrated ecological system, human existing and socioeconomic development, howere, a number of areas around the world are facing water problems with different leavels, along with the population increasing manufacture expanding and the speeding up of urbanization process. Beijing has long been one of the super major city witch is the most seriously shortage of the water resource all over the world. Per capita consumption of the water resource is just 1/6 of the entire country, and it is 1/25 of the munber all over the world. Having a systematically research to the bearing capacity of beijing water resource contains very important means of theory and reality.This passage, which firstly brought up the connection of water resourse’s bearing capacity, property and influencing factor, it thinks that water resourse’s bearing capacity is a kind of the biggest and coordinated developed social economy scale which the area water resource can support under certain technical economy condition and on the premise of meeting the needs of living water. And then, comprehensive analysis the advantages and disadvantages of some comman ways on researching water resourse’s bearing capacity in and abroad at the present time, pointed out that the multi-target analysis is a comparatively suitable way dealing with society-economy-resources-environmental system this kind of complicated , multiattributed, multi-target groups decision problem. And also is the trend of present water resources management.After that, this passage collected and arranged a great amount of the related data about beijing water resource, arrive at the following conclusion: Beijing available water quantityduring these years, when the guarantee rate are 50%、75%、95%, respectively are 46.84、39.66、32.92 hundred millions cubic meters, however, the yearly water consumption is 38.8 hundred millions cubic meters, the water resource supply and demand contradiction is terribly sharp! For this reason, build up the water resource multi-target analysis model, divide the city water resourse’s bearing capacity system into the following five subsystems, to determine five optimize target: GDP(gross domestic product, reflects the expanding of economy), COD(Chemical Oxygen Demand, feflects polluting condition), Food(grain yield, reflects agricultural industry and social steady), TWP(urban occupied population, reflects the aggregative indicator of economic and social development), and WE(entironment water needs, reflects living environment quality), these five targets can fully reflect the water resource carrying capacity on economy, society population and so on. Because of the principal factors that influence each target are closely linked, and there are relationships of dependence and restrict between each others, so it is impossible going after single target’s development, we just can seek to the unitary relative optimum. It figures out that 50% of the yearly holistic degree of satisfaction reached 0.725, the top satisfied among these is GDP, the lowest is WE. The final optimize resault, GDP is 4626.95 hundred million yuan, urban COD discharge amount is 166. 7 thousand ton, urban popedom Food is 2420 thousand ton, TWP is 8132.2 thousand, WE is 12.02 hundred million ton.In the end, the passage fathomed on the shortage of beijing water resource from the point of risk management. According to the analysis of water resource risk’s connotation, define the risk degree, reliability, continuing stability index, restorability estimate, integrated lossing degree index, use these indexes to take quantitative analysis about the shortage of beijing water resource: the beijing average risk index r is 0.75, the system is facing a biggish risk; the continue stabilityωis 0, it shows that on the premise of the safty of water resource, in the coming year the probability of system is still be safe is impossible, it fully proved the risk of beijing’s seriously shortage of water resource; and the recoverability indexβis 0.125, implies sometimes the system is in a state of unsafe, it’s a little bit difficult to return back to safe state; the entirety lossing indexμ’ is 0.036, it indicates this area’srisk rate is 3. 6% made by the shortage of water resource, the shortage of water resource is seriously risk. And thereout pointed out the countermeasure and suggestion on carrying out the water resource’s sustainable development.更多还原