江苏省煤炭多元化供应体系的构建

【作者】 王立山；

【导师】 赵媛；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 煤炭在江苏能源生产和消费中都占主体地位。江苏煤炭资源不丰，生产量多年来在2500万吨上下浮动，今后能维持这个水平已实属不易。我国东部地区的煤炭资源开发历史长，资源已远不能满足自身的发展需要，煤炭资源调出重心随之西移，导致江苏调入煤炭运距的增加。而煤炭运距的增加，使煤炭调运的风险也相应加大，调运问题已成为制约江苏煤炭供应平衡的瓶颈。同时，运距的增加，带来运输成本提高，煤价上扬，降低了江苏的产品竞争力，也影响着江苏社会经济的平稳发展。如何选择合理的调入地结构，增强供应的安全性和连续性，规避风险，是江苏能源可持续发展、经济协调进步的必然要求。本文运用文献综述法、资料分析法、数学模型与统计分析法以及综合分析的方法，从江苏煤炭的供需现状及发展变化趋势入手，考察了江苏构建煤炭多元供应体系的必要性和可行性，在此基础上探讨了江苏煤炭多元化供应体系的构建。(1)江苏煤炭资源相对匮乏，少量资源主要集中在西北一隅，“三下压煤”和粗放生产是制约省内煤炭开发的主要因素。而加大勘探力度，解决“三下压煤”问题，集约利用省内有限的资源，稳定本省的煤炭产量，将对全省的煤炭供应起着重要的应急保障作用。(2)国内煤炭资源是江苏煤炭来源的最大依靠，江苏煤炭调入地是在变化的。根据资源场理论及相关研究基础，分别测算了全国各省煤炭相对势、潜力势和资源—经济势，预测今后山西、陕西、内蒙古等省将是江苏未来的重要煤炭来源地。提出建立区外来煤基地、解决运输瓶颈、构建煤炭物流中心是江苏有效利用国内煤炭资源的重要出路。(3)国外煤炭资源是江苏煤炭调入地的新生代。江苏利用国外煤炭资源是平衡市场、调剂煤种、缓解运输压力等因素的必然需要，同时其适度利用国外资源也有着一定优势。今后，江苏进口煤占总消耗量的比重不会上升很大，主要来自澳大利亚、越南、印尼等国。更多还原

【Abstract】 Coal production and consumption have an important position in Jiangsu. Jiangsu is not rich in coal resources, the output of coal resources fluctuated around 25 million tons over the years. It is difficult for us to maintain this level in the future. Since the development of coal resources in east part of China has a long history, the coal resources are far from meeting their owe needs. The production centers have thus moved westward, resulting in the increase of distance and risks of coal transportation for Jiangsu. The transferring of coal has become a bottle-neck for the balance of coal supply in Jiangsu. Meanwhile, with the increasing of transportation distance, the costs have increased, coal prices raised, which affected the competitive edge of the products made in Jiangsu, and consequently exerted a negative effect on the stable an balanced development of economy of the province. How to choose a reasonable importing location, enhance the safety and continuity of supply and avoid risks, it is an inevitable requirement for Jiangsu to conduct sustainable development of energy supply and to make coordinated progress of economy.Methods used in this paper are the following: literature review, data analysis, mathematical models, statistical analysis and integrated analysis. On the basis of the analysis of the current situation and development trend of coal supply in Jiangsu, the necessity and feasibility of constructing multiple demand and supply system of coal have been investigated, and the construction of multiple coal supply system in Jiangsu has also been explored.(1) Coal resources in Jiangsu are relatively scarce, and mainly concentrate in a small corner of the northwest; "Coal under the control of village, railway and river"and the extensive development of coal are the major factors restricting the coal development of the province. To enhance the intension of reconnoitration and to intensively use the limited resources of the province will play a major role in the solution of the problem of "Coal under the control of village, railway and river", and in the stabilization of the coal output of the province, which are of urgent significance for the coal supply of the province.(2) The major coal source of Jiangsu is the domestic coal, and the locations of coal supply for Jiangsu are changing. The relative national coal situation, coal potential and coal resource-economic situation are measured according to the resource field theory and relative researches. On this basis, the prediction that Shanxi, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia will be the next important coal sources in the future for Jiangsu Province is made.(3) Foreign coal resource is the new source of coal transferred to Jiangsu. The use of foreign coal resource in Jiangsu is necessary to balance the market, to regulate the types of coal, and to ease the pressure on the transportation and so on. And there are advantages for Jiangsu to make full use of the foreign coal resource. In the future, the proportion of imported coal in its total consumption in Jiangsu will not increase greatly, and the source countries primarily concentrate in Australia,Vietnam and Indonesia, etc.更多还原