【作者】 孙鸿飞；

【导师】 毕新华；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 工商管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 我国的电力工业正经历着由传统的计划经济体制向市场经营模式转变的市场化改革过程。随着“厂网分开、竞价上网”、区域性电力市场试运行等的实施,标志着电力工业的市场化改革逐步进入实质性阶段。这种背景下,发电公司要进入电力市场,必须在公平、公开、公正的环境下参与发电竞价,通过市场竞争来求得自身的生存与发展。本文试图将智能决策支持系统这一信息系统的新技术,应用到火电厂的发电竞价决策当中,将智能信息技术与各种竞价模型相结合为火电厂竞价决策提供更好的辅助决策支持。论文从我国电力市场下的基本竞价理论出发,对火电厂发电成本构成对竞价策略的影响、基于电价预测的竞价理论、基于竞价对手策略分析的竞价理论、基于博弈论的竞价理论、以及对合同市场下的竞价理论等各种竞价理论进行了深入分析,探讨了相应的竞价模型。在以上分析的基础上,建立了一种以多库式智能决策支持系统体系结构为基础,同时结合数据仓库、数据挖掘、联机分析处理的智能决策支持系统,对系统进行了详细分析与设计,探讨了将数据仓库、数据挖掘、联机分析处理技术同智能决策支持系统技术有效结合,为火电厂竞价上网提供辅助决策支持的新途径。最后论文论证了本系统能为电厂竞价上网提供有效辅助决策支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recent years, the electric power industries of China have been undergoing massive changes to introduce competition into electric power system. Much effort has been made to restructure the traditional monopoly power industry with objectives of introducing fair competition and improving economic efficiency. Under this background, power plants must participate in the electric power price competition, through participating competitive market to achieve their objective with maximizing significance by means of optimal bidding strategies. Meanwhile, the process of making bidding strategies is very complex and always made promptly. Therefore to accomplish the decision properly, the people who quote the price always need certain information system to support their work. So, it is inevitable for power plants to use advanced information technologies to aid and support to make bidding strategies.The intelligent decision support system (IDSS) is a kind of dynamic intelligent interactive computer software system; it is a combo of the artificial intelligence (AI) technique and the decision support system (DSS) technique. Compared with other information management systems, the IDSS has the ability of the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis both, it can aid and support people’s decision perfectly, and has become the new direction of the information system’s development.This paper tries to apply to the IDSS technique to support the bidding strategies’ decision, which combines the techniques of the intelligent information and bidding strategies to produce proper bidding strategies decision. A few framework to build optimal bidding strategies for thermal power suppliers in an electricity market are presented first, some optimal technologies, methods and formulations such as optimization auction strategy mould, risk hedging patterns and or so are described, basing on a great many of economy principles and realistic electricity production experiences. Then, basing on all these technologies, a thermal plant bidding IDSS relating with an optimal bidding strategies system that is one of the more coincide with practical conditions than any other else is designed, and the database system, the model database system and the knowledge base system of the IDSS are developed.更多还原