【作者】 方韬；

【导师】 江兵；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 市政工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人口的增长和经济的高速发展，我国出现许多缺水城市，水资源供需矛盾日益加剧，需水量预测研究已成为当前水资源规划与管理研究中的重要课题之一。合肥市是安徽省省会，在国家推进中部崛起的大背景下，合肥市推出了“141”发展战略。因此，及时、科学地预测合肥市城市需水量，对有计划地指导水资源开发利用，促进合肥市水资源可持续利用和国民经济的可持续发展，顺利实施合肥市发展战略，具有重要的理论与现实意义。城市需水量包括生活需水量、工业需水量、生态环境需水量三个方面，其中，生态环境需水量的研究是当前城市需水预测的热点和难点。本文通过调研合肥市历史经济发展状况以及气象水文、历年供水等资料，对合肥市用水情况进行结构分析。在此基础上，借鉴已有研究成果，对三种需水量分别建立了相应的预测模型并对规划年作出预测。以人均综合生活用水量指标作为预测参数，经过多种模型拟合误差的对比分析，选择BP神经网络模型作为预测模型，再根据各规划年人口数预测出各规划年合肥市居民综合生活需水量；以工业产值作为预测参数，经过多种模型拟合误差的对比分析，选择GM(1，1)模型作为预测模型，再根据万元产值需水量预测出各规划年合肥市工业需水量；根据城市生态环境需水理论，将城市生态环境需水分为城市绿地需水量和河湖系统生态环境需水，综合考虑绿化灌溉、绿地植被蒸散、植被生长、维持植被生长的最小土壤含水量以及水面蒸发、河湖水库渗漏、河道基流、水体自身存在需水量等方面，分别建立了城市绿地和河湖系统生态环境需水量预测模型，从而预测出各规划年合肥市城市生态环境需水量以及城市最小生态环境需水量。最后依据城市总体规划中提出的可供水量进行了城市水资源的用水供需平衡分析，得出各规划年余缺水量，结果显示可供水资源能满足合肥市居民生活、工业及城市最小生态环境需水的要求，但城市生态环境需水不能完全满足，对此，提出了若干对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rising population and the fast growing economy, many cities are lack of water, the contradiction of water supply and demand aggravate. The research for forecasting urban water requirements has become an important issue of water resources planning and management. As the capital of Anhui province, under the background of promoting the growth of central cities, hence Hefei has carried out a development strategy in the name of "141" . In order to assure the sustainable utilization of water resources of Hefei and the sustainable development of national economy, forecasting urban water demand scientifically and immediately can guide the water resource development and utilization, which is of theoretical and practical importance.Urban water requirements include domestic water demand, industrial water demand and urban eco-environmental water requirements (UEEWR).The research on UEEWR is a popular and difficult problem of water demand prediction. Economic development status, weather and hydrology and yearly water supply were surveyed, and then water consumption in Hefei was analyzed. On that basis, prediction models of three water requirements were setup respectively with reference to current literatures, planning year was predicted as well. Different models are used for the prediction of water utilization per capita, after analyzing model fitting errors, BP nervous network methods were chosen and comprehensive domestic water demand was forecast according to the population in each planning year. With the industrial product as the prediction parameter, GM(1,1) model was selected through analyzing model fitting errors, then Hefei’s industrial water demand was predicted on the basis of water demand of per 10 thousand yuan output. In accordance with its theory, UEEWR includes urban greenbelt system and urban rivers and lakes system. Considering plant irrigation and growth, evaporation and leakage, oil water requirements, water surface evaporation and leakage, lake maintenance and river channels base flow and so on, and then prediction models to forecast each planning year UEEWR and urban least eco-environmental water requirements (ULEEWR) were formed respectively.Based on the analysis of balance between water supply and demand presented in the city’s overall planning, the amount of residue or lack of water in each planning year was obtained. The results showed that available water supply could satisfy water demand of local residents, industries and minimum ULEEWR in each planning year, but it could not satisfy UEEWR fully, then some measures and suggestions were proposed.更多还原