国际政治中的权力周期问题研究

【作者】 胡启明；

【导师】 吴满意；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 国际政治， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 权力周期理论,主要是来自查尔斯·朵兰的著作,该理论取决于某一主权国家在一个较为宽泛的国家体系里占总体权力的相对份额。通过横贯五个国家实力指标的非加权的方法,权力周期方法可以使分析者去评估每个国家在一个确定的体系或一系列国家中的相对等级位置,以及在相对权力上各国的崛起和衰败的频率并且可以预测在考察体系中的国家的可能性之未来。然而,权力周期理论毕竟是它那个时代的产物。很显然,在后冷战和20世纪末期乃至21世纪它缺乏对国际关系解释的充分效用。查尔斯·朵兰的权力周期理论没有对技术和武器系统革新作出解释,也没有涵盖非国家行为体在相对权力统计中的意义;对于五个实力指标的统计也是五年一次,不象今天的国际体系观察者一样去均衡考虑更宽泛的权力因素:经济、军事、软权力。该论文考虑到了这些问题,通过对权力周期理论行为者和权力进行分析以及对权力周期理论同其他国际关系理论的比较,提出了一个革新的权力周期模型,在一定程度上弥补了朵兰理论的不足之处。首先,实力指标得到修正。融合了技术变革因素,扩展了军事、经济以及相关替代物的国际权力之软因素。其次,涉及到了非国家国际行为体。最后,构建简化了的构造曲线方法,该方法用来简洁每个行为者的相对权力曲线。这一新方法和其他革新的权力因素方法对最终权力周期曲线的形状有一定影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The work of Charles F. Doran provided the idea of power cycle theory firstly. By weighting a sovereign state’s relative power within an international system, we can forecast the changing of international affairs. Using unweighted measures of national material capabilities across five indicators, the power cycle method allows the analyst to estimate the relative hierarchical position of each state in a defined system or set of states, the rapidity of each state’s rise and decline in relative power and to forecast the likely future for each state in the system under view.Power cycle theory, however, is a product of its time and may have less utility in post-Cold War and post-twentieth century analysis of international relations. The power cycle theory of Charles F. Doran does not account for innovation in technology or weapons systems, nor does it include significant non-state actor when analyzing systems. The five indicators of material capability, measured only five years, are not equally weighted across the broader elements by which international analysts understand power today: military, economic, and soft power.After analyzed the element- actors and power of power cycle theory, compared the difference with the other theories of international relations, this thesis presents a reformulated power cycle model which have modified the short of classical power cycle theory. Firstly, the indicator of material capabilities are modified, doing so, which can effect technology innovation, and explored a new atmosphere for military power and economic power. The most important is taking soft power into power cycle theory firstly. Secondly, Non-state international actors were discussed in power cycle theory. Finally, rethinking power cycle theory, we can get the simplified relative power curve. The shape of relative power curve has a little difference with Doran’s curve.更多还原