【作者】 王孝伟；

【导师】 李显生；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通环境与安全技术， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 在当今时代汽车日益成为人们生活中的必需品,伴随而来的道路交通事故也给人们带来很多的困苦和不幸。目前世界各国都在积极地治理道路交通事故,我国的交通事故发生率一直处于相当高的水平,给人们的生活和财产造成巨大损失。经过最近几年的综合治理,我国的交通事故死亡率、伤亡人数、经济损失都有所下降,但是在道路交通安全评价方面一直没有一套完整的安全评价体系,致使交通事故在发生前没有得到有效地控制,同时在道路设计之初也没办法提供有价值的参考依据。本文正是基于这种考虑,通过对吉林省道路交通情况的详细调查,搜集了大量资料。从面到线、线到点,由宏观到微观来逐层次地进行评价,不同的层面评价运用不同的评价方法。在面这个层次上采用数理统计分析方法,评判出吉林省道路交通安全发展趋势以及相关因素对其的影响;线层面采用模糊层次分析法对选出的五条高速公路进行评价,确定哪条最优;点层面是选择一条高速公路确定出其事故多发的地点,从而初步形成一套以吉林省为样本的道路交通安全评价系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 With automobile possess amount increasing each year, vehicle have not been contained by road transportation establishment, consequently road traffic accidents often happened and brought loss to people life and belongings. Road transportation system is component of people, vehicle, road, environment, anyone element destroyed that will lead to road traffic accidents happened. Research of this paper is mainly road aspect,via research for domestic and foreign road traffic accidents, foreign people average automobile possess amount is much more than my country, but road traffic accidents frequency much less, because of foreign countries have a suit of full road traffic safety appraise system in road traffic safety guarantee aspect. By appraising to safety of road can prevent traffic accidents and control in effect before traffic accidents, meanwhile, accidents when happening and have happened will be ensured in time.This paper appraised road traffic via investigating widely Ji Lin Province road traffic status, combining Ji Lin Province road characteristic from total area of JI LIN Province, several expressways, a section of the certain expressway, viz. from face to line, from line to point.1)To appraise road traffic safety for total area is propitious to find influence of road traffic safety on road and circumstance of people, vehicle, road and circumstance, Ji Lin is province that the four seasons are distinct, the climate is different in each season, thus will lead to happen different accident, so it is highly necessary that appraising road traffic safety for total area.When appraising for total area of Ji Lin Province, firstly confirm the indicator of road traffic safety appraisement,via analyzing indicator and settling traffic datum that have obtained. Secondly apply statistics means to analyze the datum and confirm the factor of affecting road traffic safety, find cause that each factor affect road traffic safety. Lastly obtain relation of each factor and road traffic accident by analyzing datum, confirm total development trend of road traffic accident.2) Reason of safety rank is analyzed by appraising road safety for one area and combining particular status of each road. The cause is analyzed for road of more accidents and more dangerous section of a highway, give amendatory advices for the cause. The cause is analyzed for road of less accidents and safer section of a highway, give experience to other roads, it is importantly helpful for reducing road traffic accident.Several expressways will be appraised for the area, FAHP is applied to safety appraisement analysis for five expressway was chosen in this paper. Firstly affecting factors of road transportation safety are analyzed, found fuzzy consistency matrix by several influencing factors chosen. Proportion of each factor of expert evaluation is combined and disposed conformably. Lastly single factor priority value of each expressway will be computed, then confirm which expressway is good and is bad in certain aspect and which one is more excellent and inferior in synthetic aspect.3)After appraising face, line of road traffic, lastly points of road traffic, more points of the road traffic accident are confirmed by choosing one expressway. Via analyzing accident more points, can find main cause of accident, can confirm type of accident, can obtain relation of accident and road traffic condition, then may find out shortcoming of road traffic design, adopt pertinence amendatory measure, the least devotion can exchange for the farthest reducing accidents, then can improve in effect present road safety level.Dynamic clustering analysis means is mainly applied to more point of accident confirmed, firstly base on point of accident (peg number of road) confirming first agglomerate point, computer section of more accident road with dynamic clustering analysis means, viz. AC section of road in this paper. accidents character indicator is converted to relative addition of prevalent consistent unit economy loss with danger degree, more than difference standard is more point of accident.Base on road line form of more point of accident and type of accident in the paper, bring forward some handling homologous strategy and particular actualizing scheme.更多还原