【作者】 郑红梅；

【导师】 何江涛； 刘明柱；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 地下水科学与工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 地下水是天津市主要供水水源,由于水资源短缺,长期过量开采地下水,造成地下水位持续下降,地下水资源逐渐枯竭,同时,还引发了许多环境地质问题,如地面沉降、海咸水入侵等。从保证可持续发展的资源条件来看,这已经成为制约天津经济和社会发展的主要因素之一。因此有必要对该区地下水资源进行更精确的评价,以指导天津市合理开发利用地下水资源。本文运用地下水数值模拟技术对天津市平原区地下水资源进行模拟计算,并预测南水北调供水后地下水的变化趋势。模型以整个天津市为主要的研究范围,面积约为11190km2。通过地下水模拟系统软件VISUAL MODFLOW,利用已知钻孔的资料信息,利用地质统计学条件模拟技术进行地质模型的模拟,从而建立水文地质块状结构;在此基础上,建立水文地质概念模型,进一步识别地下水流系统的补给、排泄条件,然后通过GIS、数据库与VISUAL MODFLOW外部存储文件相结合的方式进行大区域源汇数据赋值,运用水文地质单元流模块HUF实现两者有机结合,建立研究区地下水流数值模拟模型,水文地质参数以岩性赋值,并进行识别和验证以确认其准确性和可靠度。在对2010年南水北调启动后地下水资源供需分析的基础上,运用模型对停采地下水18286.7×104m3/a和30478×104m3/a两种方案进行预测,停采方案运行10年后,研究区的超采量明显减少,地下水储存量得到补充,浅层和深层地下水中心漏斗水位分别回升9~18m和20~30m。通过论证本文认为,南水北调中线对天津市供水,经过合理调度可以改善天津市地下水超采的状况,对天津市平原地区地下水水位的恢复也起到重要的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources are extremely scarce in Tianjin . Groundwater has brought about long-term groundwater overexploitation. Many environmental-geological problems occur, such as land subsidence, seawater intrusion etc. From the view of sustaining development,the shortage of water resources has become the main controlling factor that restricts the development of economy and society in Tianjin. So it is necessary to evaluate groundwater resources in Tianjin area more exactly for sustaining use of groundwater.In this dissertation, the groundwater numerical modeling is applied to study on groundwater resources evaluation of Tianjin. Based on the tianjin area, the groundwater numerical modeling is established. The study area is about 11190km2. The groundwater modeling system Visual modflow, which makes the best of borehole data according to transition probability approach and carries through geologic simulation based on conditional simulation of geo-statistics, is applied to construct the hydro geologic structure model, the condition of replenishment and drainage can be identified further. Then the hydro geologic conceptual model is developed and the regional mass of data of sources and sinks are assigned by GIS, data basement and outside files of Visual modflow. At last, the hydrogeology-unit constructs the groundwater numerical simulation model, while the parameters are defined by the materials, the model must be verified its accuracy and reliability.Based on the analysis of groundwater supply and demand after South to North diversion scheme in 2010a, predication of ceasing exploitation of groundwater 18286.7×104m3/a and 30478×104m3/a is made through the developed numeric simulation model. In the study area, the excess exploitation decrease evidently and the exploitation maintains the level of safe yield in an extent and the water lever at the central of the cone of depression in unconfined and confined aquifer rise by 9~18m and20~30m after ten yeas of ceasing exploitation scheme carrying out. In a summary, the midline of South to North can improve the situation of the excess exploitation, and have significant effect on groundwater lever recovery of Tianjin.更多还原