【作者】 胡珍梅；

【导师】 张建坤；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产金融是伴随着房地产业的发展而迅速的发展起来。近几年来我国房地产业的过热发展引起各方面的关注,恐房地产危机导致金融危机,使金融体系的稳定性遭受极大破坏。本论文的研究目的是指在研究房地产金融市场运行规律的基础上,对房地产金融市场发展的状况进行预警预报,并对其今后走势作出正确的预测与评价,从而尽可能地提前采取监督调控措施,最大限度地促进行业经济的持续良好运行,同时尽量避免那些可以避免的不良态势或事件的发生。论文从我国房地产市场流程及在各个阶段资金运行的情况着手,在分析房地产业和金融业相互作用机理的基础上,通过分析房地产金融市场运行内外影响因素,运用系统动力学原理建立房地产金融预警模型。然后以南京市为例,确定了模型的基本参数,建立了南京市房地产金融预警模型,并使用Ventana System公司的Vensim PLE plus 32系统动态模拟软件(4.2a版),对南京市1997年到2012年16年间的房地产金融市场发展进行实证模拟,分析主要指标的模拟结果,进行市场监测预警;同时通过政策实验,提出完善房地产金融政策的建议和完善房地产金融政策法规的配套措施。将系统动力学原理运用到房地产金融预警系统模型中为研究房地产金融预警提供了一种方法性的工具,并通过实证分析证明其有效性,为“房地产金融预警理论”的研究和完善探索一条新的道路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real estate finance is the fast developing with the development of real estate. The overheated development of the real estate of our country has aroused the attention from different fields in recent years, intimidate the crisis of the real estate and cause the crisis of the bank, make the stability of the financial system destroyed greatly. The research purpose of this paper refers to on the basis of studying the financial market of the real estate and operating the law , predict prewarning to the state of development of financial market of the real estate, and make correct prediction and appraisal to its tendency in the future, thus take and supervise the regulation and control measure ahead of time as much as possible , promote the running well continuously of trade economy to the maximum extent, try our best to avoid the emergence of those bad situation or incident that can prevent from at the same time.And the running situation that the fund operate is set about at each stages in the procedure from the market of real estate of our country of the paper, on the basis of analysing the real estate and financial circles interaction mechanism, analysing the financial market of the real estate operates the internal and external influence factors, use the systematic dynamics principle to set up the early warning model of the finance of real estate. Then take Nanjing city as an example , confirm the basic parameter of the model , has set up the early warning model of the finance of real estate of Nanjing, use Vensim PLE plus 32 system dynamic simulation software of Ventana System Company (4.2a edition ), carry on real example simulation to the development of financial market of real estate from 1997 to 2012 of Nanjing, analyse the simulation result of the major indicator, carry on the market and monitor prewarning. At the same time through policy experiment, the supplementary measures of offering the suggestion of perfecting financial policy of the real estate and perfection financial policies and regulations of real estate.Applying systematic dynamics principle to copies of real estate finance early warning system model offer a kind of method nature tool for studying the finance prewarning of the real estate, and analyse through the real example that proves its validity, explore a new road for research and perfection of " early warning theory of the finance of the real estate ".更多还原