【作者】 潘俊卿；

【导师】 邓卫；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 城市对外客运枢纽及换乘系统作为城市对外客运节点、各种客运交通方式衔接的纽带,以及城市客运交通多种交通方式换乘组合的基地,其规划布局、功能定位、设施资源配置、衔接换乘模式以及客流交通组织等因素将对城市综合客运系统的运输效益产生很大的影响。我国部分已建成的对外客运枢纽及换乘系统存在种种缺陷的状况说明对其规划设计理论作前瞻性、整体性的研究是十分必要的。本文主要针对现有规划设计理论与方法的空白点和薄弱点,在大量查阅相关文献和研究成果的基础上,采用理论分析与国内外发展经验相结合的方法,从我国城市对外客运枢纽及换乘系统的客流量预测、相关道路交通流影响分析、规划布局、配置设施设计调整方法、交通设计等五方面开展研究,以期推动和完善城市对外客运枢纽及换乘系统的规划设计理论。本文首先从宏观层面分析城市对外客运量预测基本原则,具体阐明影响客运量大小的主要因素,对以往常用的客运量预测模型进行回顾。在此基础上,本章通过详细讨论城市定位的相关概念以及不同城市定位对城市对外客运量大小的影响,结合灰色预测模型,将关联树的修正方法应用于客运量预测,提出了结合城市定位的修正方法。最后本文讨论公路、铁路、水运以及民航的分担率研究方法,为下面章节的研究建立基础。针对城市居民出行的四阶段法和城市对外客运需求在城市内部的出行有相通之处,但也有不同的地方。本文根据实际项目,针对交通小区用地强度、不同人群的对外出行率等等对传统四阶段模型进行了某种程度的修正,以期更贴近城市对外客运的实际情况。在此基础上,本文通过举例的形式,从空间和时间两个方面,分析了城市对外客运枢纽及换乘系统的诱增交通量在城市道路网上的分布特性。为下文的枢纽选址、公交线路设计等等提供了基础。本文该部分首先从宏观上讨论对外客运枢纽及换乘枢纽选址的一般性原则,在上一章研究的基础上,本章对影响枢纽选址决策的几个主要影响因素(枢纽的规模,枢纽建设对相关道路网络的影响)进行研究、量化。在此基础上本章建立选址决策的数学模型,以及模型的算法。针对枢纽的交通衔接问题,本文结合常规公交线路布设现状,对基于对外客运枢纽的公交线路规划方法进行了研究,讨论其布设的影响因素、优化目标、约束条件和优化算法,并进一步提出基于对外客运枢纽的公交线路规划方法。在枢纽客流需求及规模已经确定的情况下,结合国内外枢纽设计的经验与启示,本文对城市对外换乘枢纽的交通设计方法进行了理论及实践探讨。深入研究了铁路客运枢纽中以公交换乘为重点及以公交换乘和综合开发为主的两种设计方法以及长途公路客运枢纽及换乘系统的设计方法。最后,论文对本次研究的成果进行了总结,并且对将来的研究方向进行了展望,为更加深入的研究工作奠定了理论基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban comprehensive passenger transfer hub is the fundamental facilities to anchor urban transport network system, the ties to joint various urban passenger traffic modes and the base to transfer and combine manifold traffic modes of urban passenger transportation. A great deal of factors play a dominating role in transportation effectiveness of urban passenger transport network, for example, planning and layout, function orientation, facilities and resources distribution, transfer patterns, and traffic organization of passenger flow. A part of transfer hubs built in our country are inconvenient for transfer and of low-level joint. It is indicated that it’s quite necessary to study insightful and integrative planning and design theory of transfer hubs. In view of the void vacuum and weak points of existing theories and methods of planning and design, on the basis of consulting a large amount of relevant literature and research achievements, by means of combining theoretical analysis of domestic and foreign developing experience, and from six aspects of development trend of urban passenger transfer hub in our country, planning and layout, forecasting passenger volume, scale of distributing facilities, traffic design and evaluation method of transfer effectiveness, the study is developed, so as to promote and optimize the planning and design theory of urban comprehensive passenger transfer hub in this paper.First of all, based on classifying urban comprehensive passenger transfer hub, and two facets of planning and construction of hub and urban transportation system, the ubiquitous problems of urban comprehensive passenger transfer hub in China is summarized, the relevant solution is put forward. And then, by combining foreign development circumstances with development trend of passenger traffic pattern in big cities in our country, our status quo is studied and the development direction of urban comprehensive passenger transfer hub is probed into.The analysis of characteristics of external passenger transfer hub and urban public transportation transfer hub in planning and layout is showed, based on macroscopical layout and forms of urban passenger transfer hub, the influencing factors and location planning principle, process, and method in layout location are discussed. Afterward, the location planning models of external passenger transfer hub, which applies fuzzy grey relationship model and alternant location model together, and the location planning models of urban public transportation transfer hub that is on the basis of marking in grade are found, namely single location model, indirect interdynamic location model, interdynamic location model, and comprehensive location model. The planning and layout methods of such two kinds of hubs are also proposed.Thirdly, by way of studying the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of passenger flow in the stations of transfer hub and the area of passenger flow generation in transfer hub, the conceptions of rational area and influencing area of passenger transfer hub are defined, then, discuss how to fix the range of the two. On the basis of sufficient consideration of all kinds of factors, urban land use, urban traffic network and so on, proceeding from the situation taken systemically and comprehensively, and applying genetic neural network, a forecasting model of passenger volume generation in a single transfer hub is presented, which is founded on historical data. Moreover, under the circumstances of bringing passenger transfer hub into the whole urban transit system, study and discuss passenger volume generation forecast, traffic impedance, OD matrix transform and traffic mode split forecast. Then, set up the forecasting model of passenger traffic mode ratio based on sustainable development and the transfer modes chosen modelaccording to fuzzy neural network and fuzzy logic. Finally, combination with the characteristics of transfer hub, multi-route probit-based loading model based on station in hub is made and the calculation methods of collecting and distributing volume and transfer volume in the hub are discussed.更多还原