【作者】 金颖思；

【导师】 郭??；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 统计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 技术性贸易壁垒是我国加入WTO后在发展对外贸易中遇到的一大挑战，为了防范技术性贸易壁垒对出口企业所造成的破坏性影响，我国必须对技术性贸易壁垒的风险进行有效评估从而建立健全的预警系统。本文在借鉴国内外学者研究成果的基础上，主要运用数量分析方法对技术性贸易壁垒的风险进行定量研究，为建立健全的技术性贸易壁垒预警系统提供数量研究支持。 本文分为两部分进行定量研究：第一部分利用综合评价法计算技术性贸易壁垒通报的风险。从技术性贸易壁垒所发布的地区、所涉及的产品类别和产品层次分别计算其风险系数，再利用层次分析法对三项系数的权数进行估计，得出综合风险系数，借此衡量该项技术性贸易壁垒通报的风险高低。第二部分引入对数单位模型，以机电产品为实证分析对象，建立其技术性贸易壁垒预测模型。结果发现贸易伙伴国的进出口贸易平衡状况、与中国进出口贸易差、人均GDP、应急处理的反倾销案件数、应急处理的平衡税案件数和人均健康消费支出，这6个因素是影响我国的贸易伙伴国设置机电产品的技术性贸易壁垒的主要原因。据回判结果显示，利用本文所建模型判断一个国家会否设置机电产品方面的技术性贸易壁垒的准确率高达84.6％。 综合本文所介绍的两种方法以及相关的调查数据，可以建立一个较健全的技术性贸易壁垒风险评估及预警体系。体系中不仅可给出各国各产品发布技术性贸易壁垒通报的概率，而且可以给出相应的为我国带来的损失金额预测，因而达到减轻技术性贸易壁垒为我国出口企业所带来的损失，达到引导和优化我国出口产业发展的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade) is one of the challenges to the development of Chinese foreign trade after China has joined the WTO. To avoid the destructiveness of TBT to Chinese export enterprises, it is urgent to assess the risk of TBT effectively and set up a comprehensive TBT forecast system. Being the foundation of the TBT forecast system, this thesis tries to apply quantitative methods to carry out the assessment of the risk that TBT brings to Chinese enterprises.This thesis can be mainly divided into two parts. In the first part, Synthesis Evaluation Method is applied to calculate the risk of a TBT. The risk of a TBT depends on three factors, including the country which set up this TBT, the kind of export commodities this TBT concerned with, and how deeply this TBT can influence the commodities’ function. These three factors’ risk can be calculated respectively and finally constitute a synthesis risk, which can be used as a standard to judge the TBT’s risk level.In the second part of the thesis, logit model is applied to forecast the probability of the occurrence of a TBT. Taking the mechanical and electrical products as an example, this thesis has collected the foreign trade data of Guangdong, China, and finally got a forecast model whose forecast correct percentage is up to 84.6%. The results turn out to be that whether a country will set up a TBT or not mainly depends on six factors, including its trade balance, trade balance to China, GDP per capita, the number of its anti-dumping case, the number of its countervailing duties case and the health expenditure per capita.Summing up the relative data and the method talking above, we can build a comprehensive TBT forecast system which can offer not only the probability of the occurrence of a TBT of coming year, but also the predicted cost we will suffer from this TBT. As a result of that, this forecast system can minimize cost which TBT brings to Chinese local export enterprises, and optimize Chinese export industry’s development.更多还原