国际铁矿石价格变动对中国钢铁产业的影响分析

【作者】 贾亮；

【导师】 杨风禄； 王传仕；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 钢铁行业是国民经济的基础性行业，而铁矿石则是钢铁行业的基础性原料，据有关数据显示，我国铁矿石原料成本在钢铁总成本中的比重约在40％左右。据海关总署统计，2005我国有56.7％的铁矿石需求依赖于国外进口，因此国际市场铁矿石的价格变化直接并且十分重要地影响着我国钢铁企业的经营状况，从而关系到我国经济的运行发展。 世界铁矿石的交易，分为长期协议矿和现货交易两种方式，前者通过年度谈判确定当年的4月1日到来年的4月1日期间的铁矿石的交易价格，后者则是在现货市场通过双方协商的方式确定，因此其价格变化迅速，存在着很大的波动性。由于历史原因，长期协议矿一直占据我国进口矿主流，占进口总量60％～70％几乎来自全球三大铁矿石供应商，比如2005年长期协议矿就占进口总量的60.7％。 从2003年以后，国际铁矿石市场上的价格开始大幅度变化。从离岸价格来看，铁矿石的长期合同价格在2004年度上涨18.6％，继而，2005年度暴涨71.5％，2006年度谈判的最终结果仍然上涨高达19％。国际铁矿石价格的急剧高涨、我国铁矿石进口的高速增长伴随着我国对铁矿石定价权的缺失，这充分暴露出了我国重要矿产资源的安全性问题。 因此，在这种背景下，本文重点分析了国际市场长期协议矿价格急剧高涨对我国钢铁企业和钢铁产业所带来的一系列的乃至深远的影响，主要结论包括： (1) 国际铁矿石市场离岸价格的变动趋势和幅度，由于海运费的影响，使得和我国钢铁企业制造成本的变动趋势和幅度不相吻合，甚至出现相反的变化趋势。而且，其变动也直接影响了国际现货矿价格的变化。 (2) 研究发现，铁矿石的价格变化对我国钢铁产品的产量没有大的影响，也就是说，原料成本的价格目前还不是影响我国钢铁产量的主要因素。 (3) 不可否认的是，一方面铁矿石的上涨确实增加了钢铁企业的成本，另一方面出于对铁矿石价格上涨的预期，钢铁企业都会在新的铁矿石合同年度来临前后纷纷提高钢材的价格。 (4) 在对钢铁企业利润的影响方面，2003年和2004年，铁矿石的价格与钢材产品价格呈正相关，产品价格的上涨部分抵消了成本的上升，而在2002年更多还原

【Abstract】 The iron ore is the foundational raw material of the steel industry, which is the foundation of the national economy. According to some related data, the proportion is about 40% in our country. The custom administration’s statistics showed that about 56.7% of our country’s iron ore demands relied on the overseas import in 2005, therefore the change of the iron ore’s price in the international market affected directly and extremely importantly the management condition of our iron and steel enterprises, and also related with the development of our country economy.There are two ways for the trade of the iron ore, which are the long-term agreement ore and the spot exchange, the former trade price during annual April 1 to the last April 1 is confirmed through the annual negotiation, and the latter is confirmed on the spot market through the way of the negotiations of both sides, so its price is changed rapidly and fluctuating. Because of the historical reason, the long-term agreement ore has been occupying the mainstream in import all the time, and nearly 60% -70% of the total import amount comes from the global three major iron ore supplier, for example the long-term agreement ore accounted for 60.7% in 2005.Since 2003, the iron ore price in the international market began to change by a large margin. According to free on board, the long-term contract price of the iron ore went up by 18.6% in 2004, then, boomed by 71.5% in 2005, and the final result of the negotiation still went up by 19% in 2006. the sharply surging in iron ore price in the international market, and the high growth of the import of iron ore, were accompanied with the lost of right in iron ore pricing, which had fully exposed the security question of the important mineral resources in our country.So, under this background, this text analyzed a series of and even far-reaching influences sharply which was caused by the high rising of the long-term agreement ore price in international market to our iron and steel enterprise and steel industry, and the main conclusion includes:更多还原