【作者】 贾春艳；

【导师】 李淑霞；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 世界经济， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 战后发达资本主义国家都致力于经济的恢复和发展。欧洲国家凭借雄厚的经济基础,借助于美国全球战略扩张,经济很快出现了战前的繁荣景象,但是此后的经济增长速度一直徘徊在3%-4%左右,进入90年代,甚至出现经济的负增长,失业和通货膨胀并存的局面,困扰着欧盟诸国;以日本为代表的亚洲国家,在雁阵模式下经济高速发展,日本在战后甚至出现了GDP增长20%的奇迹,但是80年代以来,房地产泡沫引发的银行信贷危机,使日本经济一蹶不振,直到现在还处于经济停滞的泥潭。而美国经济却一支独秀,战后至今,虽然经历了几次衰退,但衰退的时间非常短,即使在最严重的石油危机期间,美国也只是出现了23个月的衰退,而相反经济的稳定性和繁荣性增强,因而研究美国经济周期的特点及宏观经济政策的责任就具有很重要的意义。在实际经济周期理论框架下,检验美国经济周期波动的因素以及宏观经济政策责任的落脚点。在美国5个长波周期和战后10个短波周期中,技术依然是美国经济波动的根源,而战后美国宏观经济政策的责任也是致力于保持政策的时间一致性。美国的经济政策符合最优化的发展方向,财政政策由单纯的需求管理向供应管理过渡,紧紧围绕着如何推动技术的进步和产业结构的升级,提升财政政策的质量;货币政策由逆周期的权衡政策逐渐向单一货币规则过渡,通过不断强化央行的独立性,使货币政策的执行更加透明和稳定。而政府问责制和机构弹性制很好的约束政府的理性与自律性,使得预先制定的最优政策能够避免道德风险的制约,得到很好的执行。战后美国政局稳定,政府的声誉不断提高,公众对政府日益强化的信任,使得政府的承诺可信性提升。因而美国经济周期波动的特点能够很好的用实际经济周期理论解释,而经济政策责任的落脚点也符合实际经济周期理论的政策主张。更多还原

【Abstract】 After world warⅡ, all the developed countries were focusing on restoring and developing economy. Based on reliable economic basis and with the help of the America , European countries returned to prosperous picture before the war quickly ,but later ,the GDP was packing back and forth between 3% and 4%,especially in 90’s , the GDP increase begin to appear negative growth , unemployment and deflation make policy authority puzzled. Taking Japan as representative, Asian countries were developing fast enough under the formation of wild geese in flight patter. The miracle of GDP increase up to 20% even appeared in Japan. Unfortunately, Real estate froth of 80’s caused the crises of bank credit, after that, Japan was in depression till now. The American economy was remarkable, though several short recessions. Even in Petroleum crisis, only 23 months recession appeared.Based on the real business cycle, the paper analysis the initial strength of business cycle. technology is the root of economic undulation, and point out the responsibility of macroeconomic policy—time consistency of policy. In order to realize the time consistency of policy, the formulation the optimal policy is the foundation, government rationality is the Safeguard, the key problem lies on the system arrangement of government commitment.After point out General theory frame, exam the factor that causes the undulation of America economy. Through the analysis the 5 long wave business cycle, and 10 short wave business cycle , the paper draws the conclusion that technology was the basic reason of America economic undulation, and the responsibility of macroeconomic policy was always keep the policy of time consistency. American fiscal policy focused on how to improve the process of technology, and through Strengthening Independence of central bank ,monetary policy become more and more transparent and stable; Establishment of the system of government accountability and flexible organization improve rationality and automatic rhythmicity of government; After world warⅡ, the stability political situation , promotion of government prestige and trust of the更多还原